Maybe more important: What should they change about the Switch?
The last console they released that didn't essentially re-invent the entire console was, what, the SNES? Everything since has drastically changed the controller, plus the core console mechanics in a few cases.
Do we think they'll do something very different again, or are they ready to settle into a less change-focused mindset?
TLDR: I'd bet my pinky toe that they iterate on the switch.
I mean the reason that things didn't change much from NES to SNES is NES was successful. But in the SNES era, they got a ton of competition and there were no typical conventions for games. Then with the N64, they were jumping into the 3d world and that required some extra changes and Nintendo had some stable competition. Gamecube started having some of the newer conventions but kind of failed (thus why not make big changes?). So the Wii took a different route and made something very different and didn't get into the tflops race that the other consoles were doing. Wii was successful so why not iterate? Well bad advertising, naming, etc caused the WiiU to flop.
But at the same time, GB -> GBP -> GBC -> GBA all of which were backwards compatible. That is stability from 1989 to 2001. Then GBA -> DS had backwards compat, DS ->3DS same thing. And basically all of those handhelds were successful. So they combined those markets. Something more high end than a 3DS (which for people like me that didn't have one and didn't realize the quality of graphics on that thing, it's kind of huge to see what the switch offered as a handheld), but still portable. Something that can play modern games, but still be mobile.
So given their history, I imagine they have to iterate on the next console. Especially since they basically combined their handheld and console into one thing. And given that they will want to get people off of the switch, they need to give them a reason. They almost certainly aren't going to make something more powerful than a PS5 or Series X, so why would I get a stationary console that is less good and will have far less games? But give me another handheld console that can play even better games than TOTK and can maybe even play pokemon violet well... no we are talking. And honestly, people look at their console stuff out of context so often and think that Nintendo just tries crazy stuff. But really, they have just tried and failed at times, but had the money to keep on going. And also success in another area when something failed.
I'm not entirely sure I agree the Wii U was an iteration on the Wii. Name aside, they played very differently from one another. I think Switch is closer to being an iteration on Wii U than Wii U on Wii.
That said - the rest of your points are pretty good. They basically had no choice but to make drastic changes on the N64, and the giant change from the GameCube to the Wii was a change in strategy as a reaction to failure. Plus the points about the handhelds.
I'm cautiously optimistic the next console will just be a better Switch, but I definitely wouldn't bet my pinky toe on it just yet.
I think the issue with the Wii U was a combination of marketing issues and the name issue. To look at the Wii U's box, unless you're actually aware it's a new console, one may naively assume that the Wii U is actually just the gamepad, and a peripheral to the actual Wii. Like you have the Wiimote, Wiipad sounds a bit off, yeah Wii U sounds fine.
If they keep the Switch name, they need a strong indicator it's a sequel console, rather than something similar. "Switch 2" is the most obvious choice there, but not very in tune with their naming aesthetics. "New Switch" seems more Nintendo-esque but I'm not sure they'd go for it.
I think it would be wise to avoid the Switch name, but also emphasise that it's backwards compatible with the Switch in the marketing. It also depends on what gimmick they give the console, if it has the same gimmick as the Switch, calling it something like the Nintendo Swap might work? Maybe not the best, but neither was "Wii U".
I think you would fall into the same trap as the Wii U by staying too close to the Switch name. It's muddled by the fact that PlayStation and Xbox brands have become so tightly associated with their parent company's gaming marketing, but Nintendo's most recognizable brand is and always has been "Nintendo".
People were smart enough to understand NES -> Super NES. They can understand Switch -> Super Switch.
It’s the perfect name, really. Especially if most of the changes are under the hood. I’d personally just like a better screen and a better CPU/GPU. That’s all I need.
I agree and I think they fumbled the naming convention as far back as GameCube. Nintendo, Super Nintendo and Nintendo 64 were all known as a 'Nintendo' by the masses.
Super Switch would sort of make sense given Nintendo’s history, but it’s a shitty decision going forward. Even if you like the name, it just pushes the difficulty of renaming down to the next console generation.
Switch 2 would be fine, but I can’t see Nintendo going for it. An entirely new name would probably be the best outcome. Or they’ll pull another “New Switch U Plus” out of thin air.
Assuming it keeps the hybrid handheld/console model and is backwards compatible with Switch games, then calling it something along the lines of a "switch 2" or "super switch" makes sense.
I do like the Super Switch. But if the Switch is the standard going forward it’ll make the 3rd iteration a little difficult to name. So Switch 2 is fine
But we’re also assuming they’re going to make a Switch successor. Hopefully that is the case but I don’t quite trust Nintendo not to screw this up
Assuming it's backwards-compatible with Switch games - and it really, really should be - then "Switch 2" is the logical choice; there's a reason everybody except Microsoft (who have a weird relationship with names in general) sequentially numbers their flagship hardware, it's easy to remember and easy to search for and instantly obvious what it is.
Considering the fiasco that was the WiiU was partly due to its name, I think that nintendo will want to move as far away as possible from the name of its predecessor.
They'll probably continue down the route that has been theorized off and on for the past few years.
Likely end up with a 'Switch Pro' that can run slightly more intensive games. Games will start out supporting better graphics/etc on the pro, and eventually a few games will release exclusively for the Pro edition, they'll eventually cut the price of the pro, maybe release something in a switch lite form factor and discontinue sales of the regular switch and the original edition will just slowly fade away.