In 1998, Paul Krugman predicted the internet's impact on the economy would be no greater than the fax machine's
In 1998, Paul Krugman predicted the internet's impact on the economy would be no greater than the fax machine's
The fax machine actually had a massive impact on society and is much older than you think (newer than the telegram, older than the telephone, and in use during Abraham Lincolns life time).
Just because it's usefulness had declined in the prior 10 years to him making that statement, doesn't mean it didn't affect the economy.
In the year 2100 or 2200 the internet as we know it may have been superceded by methodologies we can't even comprehend right now.
In the year 2100 or 2200 the internet as we know it may have been superceded by methodologies we can’t even comprehend right now.
It's gonna be fax machines again, isn't it?
Federated Fax Machines
I don't know enough about fax machines to comment on that
I read a follow up quote somewhere the last time I saw this that he said it sucks to be remembered for one dumb quote- though I feel like by ‘98 you’d have a better read than that, the internet wasn’t “new” in 98. The iMac which famously shipped with a built in 56k modem came out in 97.
I will say, the internet in 1998 looked nothing like the internet today. There was barely any commerce at all. 1998 is maybe the year you'd start to say that Amazon "made it", but even then the common take from established reporters was that they'd never be able to compete with brick and mortar booksellers like Barnes and Noble. To the extent that the average person was even aware that you could buy things on the internet, it was mostly because they'd heard that it was dangerous to use your credit card online.
At the time, the web was still pretty small. Google launched in 1998 -- prior to that Yahoo was the most popular "search engine", but Yahoo was mostly a human-curated list of web pages organized by topic. Windows 95 was still what most people used, and it didn't even come with a TCP/IP stack enabled.
Certainly not a brilliant prediction, but it's hindsight that takes it from "pretty mediocre take" to "comically stupid".
In a 2013 interview, Krugman stated that the predictions were meant to be "fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting"
I'd say that too if I was that hilariously wrong about something.
A Nobel Prize really makes you stop questioning yourself huh?
It's not a real Nobel Prize, it's a Bank of Sweden prize and it's a better reflection of Swedish economic politics than true innovation in the field (probably because economics is more applied philosophy than science).
Nowadays you can affect the economy with one shitpost.
I wonder if they made him give his nobel prize back after a couple years.
Honestly, I saw NCSA Mosaic in February (March?) of '93 and remarked to the user that it didn't seem to be anything special, and that I could get all that information on Gopher or Archie. They thought I was crazy.
By July I'd changed my mind and told my wife that in a few years there would be plumbing trucks with web addresses on them instead of 800 numbers. She thought I was crazy.
Maybe I'm just crazy?
Meanwhile Bowie knew: https://youtu.be/tLf6KZmJyrA?t=580
ok boomer