Summary:

The Belgian Federal Planning Bureau has concluded that, in an optimal scenario, Belgium will need to build 8 gigawatts of new nuclear power plants to achieve a climate-neutral electricity supply by 2050. This study supports the current government's push for a nuclear revival. The report outlines three scenarios for meeting electricity demands, with the most cost-effective option involving significant investments in both offshore wind energy and nuclear power.

In this optimal scenario, offshore wind capacity would increase from 2.2 to 8 gigawatts, and new nuclear plants would generate nearly one-third of Belgium's electricity by 2050. The study predicts that electricity consumption will more than double, exceeding 200 terawatt-hours. Without nuclear energy, Belgium would need to import nearly 40% of its electricity, significantly increasing energy dependence.

The nuclear scenario is deemed the cheapest, with total costs estimated at €115 per megawatt-hour, compared to 25-35% higher costs in scenarios without nuclear energy. However, the Planning Bureau emphasizes that economic factors are not the only considerations; energy independence and the uncertainties surrounding nuclear fuel costs and waste management are also critical.

Investment in new nuclear plants is projected at €7.7 billion per gigawatt, with potential cost overruns posing risks to the feasibility of the nuclear option. The Bureau remains skeptical about the viability of small modular reactors due to their higher costs. The findings align with previous studies and provide additional support for the government's nuclear energy ambitions.