Democrats can’t gerrymander themselves out of their gerrymandering problem

While Democratic leaders insist they won’t surrender in the face of Republican aggression, they are largely out of ammo. Democrats worked every angle in their seven states in 2021. In Illinois they took 14 of the state’s 17 congressional seats, claiming 82 percent of the seats despite winning just 52.7 percent of the two-party vote. Maryland Democrats crafted a map that yields them seven of eight seats, and the party awarded itself bonuses in Oregon and New Mexico and maximized its advantage in Nevada.

Few opportunities remain. Democrats are stretched thin in Illinois. Experts think there aren’t enough blue votes left to nab another seat there. Maryland courts have already blocked Democrats once from enacting an 8-0 map. A bipartisan commission draws lines in New Jersey; Democrats already control nine of 12 seats in a state that moved 5 percentage points toward Trump in 2024. New York’s state constitution stands in the way of mid-decade redistricting. It probably could not be amended before 2028.

That leaves California. Newsom and the Democratic legislature appear serious about counteracting Texas. The governor has talked openly about placing a ballot initiative before voters this fall that would pause the state’s independent redistricting commission and allow the legislature to match the Lone Star State’s aggressive norm-busting.

It’s not an easy path. But assume that it makes the ballot with two-thirds support in the legislature, wins approval from voters even though Republicans and independents outnumber Democrats, and then is upheld by the courts. Democrats already hold 43 of 52 seats from California. Even the most aggressive gerrymander, most Democrats concede, might push them to 48 wins.

That’s five seats – and would even the score with Texas. Except Republicans wouldn’t stop there. Ohio must redraw its maps this fall, and two ultra-competitive seats held by Democrats will be in the crosshairs. Missouri lawmakers have said they intend to nab an additional seat in Kansas City. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has said he is “very seriously” looking at a redraw there that could jeopardize three South Florida Democrats and two others in Orlando and Tampa. Indiana and North Carolina could follow. Kansas, Kentucky and New Hampshire appear less interested, but if Trump brings pressure, few in his party resist.

Place two from Ohio, two more in Florida, and one each from Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina in the GOP column, and you begin to see the Democrats’ problem. If Democrats are serious about all-out war, they’d also have to unravel commissions in Colorado and Washington. Good luck with that.

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None of this sounds fair, or maybe even satisfactory. But it’s the painful consequence of the Democrats’ falling asleep in 2010 and surrendering state legislatures to Republicans, failing to focus on the Supreme Court with the GOP’s single-mindedness, and protecting the filibuster over reform in 2021, when Democrats held trifecta power. Fighting back will require many electoral cycles.

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