• Pony AI Inc. (Nasdaq: PONY) is a hyped robotaxi company that went public in November 2024. Recent rumors around interest by former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick in PONY’s U.S. business have driven excitement around the company.
• Our research, including on-the-ground testing in one of the major cities in China and expert interviews, indicates that PONY has, in fact, very little to offer and is more akin to a smoke and mirrors show.
• There are serious allegations from an apparent insider that PONY actively falsified data for the algorithm of its self-driving software. Management is allegedly aware of the issue and was covering it up. We find this reckless and dangerous, especially for a company that develops autonomous driving software.
• While PONY likes to portray itself as an international player, the reality is that the company’s permit to conduct autonomous vehicle testing without a driver in California was revoked a few years ago after a crash. Pony had a similar incident in May 2025 in China, which reportedly led to the temporary suspension of the service in that district. It appears that PONY currently only has a permit to conduct autonomous vehicle testing with a driver in the U.S.
• We tested the company’s robotaxis in available districts in China. Based on our experience, it appears PONY has the least pick-up spots, longest waiting time, and overall worse customer experience than the industry leader there. In our opinion, PONY is clearly losing against Chinese peers such as Baidu Apollo and WeRide.
• Expert interviews confirm the issues we saw in our on-the-ground due diligence. PONY is lacking data, a high-definition map, and would need enormous funding and time to catch up with peers, according to industry experts.
• The economics of PONY currently appear dire. Financials worsened after the IPO and the company heavily relies on its related-party transactions. A big portion of PONY’s total revenue comes from an entity directly related to the Chinese military.
• PONY’s close ties to the Chinese Government caused Senators to call for a delisting of PONY from U.S. stock exchanges. We think these issues themselves make a potential acquisition of the U.S. business difficult despite management claiming a separation of the U.S. and Chinese businesses. PONY is trading at record valuations, and the recent expiration of the lock-up restrictions is poised to put pressure on the company’s share price.