This paper assesses claims that, prior to the 19th century, around 90% of the human population lived in extreme poverty (defined as the inability to a…
I really hate when people don't summarize articles.
Here's an AI summary by Claude:
The standard narrative that global extreme poverty declined with the rise of capitalism is flawed; the empirical evidence indicates the rise of capitalism initially caused immiseration across much of the world, and substantial progress against extreme poverty only occurred centuries later, often correlating with progressive social movements rather than capitalism itself. As hundreds of millions still live in extreme poverty today, capitalism has failed to deliver universal progress against poverty.
So, here's an AI outline:
The Standard Public Narrative on Global Poverty and Capitalism
The standard public narrative holds that:
Extreme poverty is the natural condition of humanity
Around 90% of people lived in extreme poverty before the 1800s
Global poverty only began declining with the rise of capitalism in the 19th century
Problems with the Evidence Supporting this Narrative
The narrative relies heavily on a graph first created by Martin Ravallion, later popularized by Steven Pinker
The graph suggests 90% of people lived in extreme poverty (<$1.90/day) before 1800
But the graph has several problems:
Mixes two inconsistent data sources:
National Accounts Statistics (NAS) before 1980
Household consumption surveys after 1980
NAS do not account well for non-commodity forms of provisioning like subsistence farming and commons, which were important historically
Using NAS to estimate historical poverty introduces errors, as growth in NAS does not necessarily reflect growth in household incomes
The $1.90/day poverty line also has problems:
Based on overall prices in the economy, not prices of essential goods
So it may change what is considered "poverty" over time
The graph starts in 1820, missing previous centuries of capitalist history and primitive accumulation
Robert Allen provides alternative poverty estimates suggesting:
England had low poverty rates even during feudalism
India's poverty around 1600 may have been only 5-10%
Indian poverty rose under British colonialism
Three Issues with the Standard Narrative
Extreme poverty does not seem to be the natural state for humanity
Historical real wages often allowed survival above $1.90/day
Rise of capitalism initially caused immiseration, not progress
Incorporation into capitalist system associated with:
Declines in real wages
Deterioration in heights
Increases in mortality
Progress occurred centuries after rise of capitalism
In Europe's core, only from 1880s
In periphery, only from mid-20th century
Analysis of Real Wages, Heights, and Mortality Since 1500s
Examines trends in 5 regions: Europe, Latin America, Africa, South Asia, China
Europe
Real wages
Allowed survival above extreme poverty line for centuries
Declined with rise of capitalism in 16th century
Only improved from 1880s
Heights
Declined from 16th to 19th century
Recovered in 20th century
Mortality
Famines increased under early capitalism
Latin America
Real wages
Not in extreme poverty except during catastrophes
Declined with colonialism in 18th century
Recovered in mid-20th century
Heights
Declined in 18th century
Recovered mid-20th century
Mortality
Genocide and collapse after conquest
Possibly rise in mortality in late 19th century
Africa
Real wages
Above poverty line in 18th century
Declined with slave trade and colonialism
Recovered mid-20th century
Heights
Decline under colonialism
Still not recovered in many countries
Mortality
Increased under colonialism
South Asia
Real wages
Above poverty line before colonialism
Declined under British rule
Little recovery
Heights
Decline under colonialism
Little recovery except in Sri Lanka
Mortality
Marked increase under British rule
China
Real wages
Decline after Opium Wars
Recovered under communism in 20th century
Heights
Decline after Opium Wars
Recovery under communism
Mortality
Increase after Opium Wars
Rapid progress under communism
Conclusions
Extreme poverty does not seem to be natural state
Rise of capitalism caused immiseration, not progress against poverty
Progress occurred centuries after rise of capitalism
Where progress occurred, it correlated with progressive social movements and public provisioning, not capitalism
Capitalism has failed to deliver universal progress against extreme poverty
Hundreds of millions still live in conditions akin to worst periods of history