European Spaceflight
European Spaceflight
So what is your opinion on the European companies? Which ones do you think will thrive and why?
It might be a bit early but I've been going over the companies and I cannot form a solid opinion.
Ignoring big old companies like Airbus, Thales Alenia, SES, etc, there are a handful of smaller companies I'm following a bit.
The Exploration Company is working on a space station cargo capsule that can be upgraded for crew. D-Orbit keeps launching space tugs. ICEYE seems to be doing well with their SAR constellation. Exotrail sells smallsat prop systems and has a tug.
For launch, PLD, RFA, and Isar, (and a lot of smaller ones) are racing to operations.
There are also a handful of companies with locations in the US and Europe, like Loft, Oneweb, and Redwire.
What are your thoughts on the MaiaSpace offshoot of ArianeGroup? Do you think they'll be successful enough to carve out a segment of the launch market?
I hope so! Working on a reusable first stage is a good start, and hopefully they're able to leverage Ariane resources but not need to deal with the bureaucracy. I haven't seen enough hardware from them to feel confident yet, though. They're targeting a late 2026 launch, which means 2027, and it better mean PLD, Isar, and RFA have all launched multiple times by then, which makes their business case tougher until/unless they get reuse working.
And do you think all these new companies (RFA, PLD and Isar) will thrive? Is it the case that Europe cannot let any of them fail and thus will try to "keep them afloat"? I personally see it very risky to have just one, or two, companies with a newer mentally (as opposed to Ariane et al which I see as more conservative and unable to even try to keep up with American companies)
There are way too many small rockets in development, so they can't all make it. Europe still benefits from "domestic" launch capabilities, so they'll prop some up, but they don't need a dozen. Anything less than 1000kg to LEO seems like misplaced effort at this point, which is why I left off some really small launchers (Orbex, Skyrora, Hyimpulse, etc).
Ariane might be able to follow ULA and stay relevant until reusable rockets knock them out of the market, which will take longer to happen in Europe. Ariane 6 launching consistently is good, but that can't be enough.