Russia suffers 160,000 casualties in 2025 so far, heading for war’s deadliest year – UK intel
Russia suffers 160,000 casualties in 2025 so far, heading for war’s deadliest year – UK intel
Moscow's staggering personnel losses come with minimal territorial gains
Putin is getting more and more desperate. As he is running out of options, he is just increasing the meat waves!
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Something that caught my eye here: It's estimated that russia has about 600 000 troops in Ukraine. If we're generous, that's maybe 300 000 frontline troops (see table 9). At 30 000 casualties per month, that means 10 % of the russian frontline troops become casualties every month, which is absolutely insane.
If 50 % of the casualties return to the frontline (generous), this means that half of the frontline troops need to be replaced every 10 months. Russia isn't even making progress, and hasn't for quite a while. This kind of casualty rate is very clearly not sustainable for them. If recruitment numbers start dropping even a little bit, their frontline units are likely to become combat ineffective within just a couple of months.
I hadn't looked at the numbers this closely in a while, but it seems very clear to me that the russian army is just barely holding it together at this point. If (when) their recruitment pool dries up, they'll only be able to hold for maybe six months before their frontline units are too depleted to hold the line anymore, and their ability to conduct assaults would dwindle even before that.
Here's to hoping russians figure out that becoming a frontline troop gives them a 70 % chance of becoming a casualty within a year, and that they stop signing up to be gunned down soon...
It's a little uneven because they seem to basically rotate the new people in for suicide missions in small groups. So there's still a pool of people farther in the rear not getting hit at such high rates.
That's a very good summary of the situation, and AFAIK they have almost twice the combatants they had in the beginning.
But the quality is decreasing on everything, soldiers have less training, food and ammo supplies are failing, and equipment quantity and quality are both deteriorating.
There are also rumors Russia has had increasing problems mobilizing soldiers for months. So last year Russia doubled the bonus!Maybe I see what I want to see, but it looks like it's going very very badly for Russia already.
Indeed, they already make virtually no progress, the equipment losses have shifted to old stuff. The only "problem" is that the collapse will be sudden, so we cannot tell when exactly it will happen. There's hope that we're actually close to the Ukrainian victory. Maybe even this year already.
Exactly! What this means is essentially that once the russians start cracking, it's likely to be catastrophic. If recruitment stopped tomorrow, they would last a couple months at best. The only thing keeping the russian army going at this point seems to be 30 000 fresh "soldiers" being sent to die each month.
It can only be a matter of time before the general public starts realising that very few of those that sign up actually come back at all.
Don't put high hopes on the general public there. Soviet union was very good at brainwashing and propaganda. With the new tools and several decades to develop and use them, putler's team brought that to a completely different level.
I hear a lot of stories of Ukrainians giving up on talking to their relatives in ruzzia, because all they hear back from them is denial and propaganda.