Current polling still shows that only 25% of Albertans would vote to separate.
Smith, I think, knows this, and I don't believe she actually wants a referendum to happen. I certainly don't think she wants one to pass.
Much like Boris Johnson attaching himself to Brexit, Smith likes the way that supporting "Albertan Sovereignty" gives her an enemy to constantly rail against and blame every problem on. If Alberta seccedes, suddenly all those problems become her problems.
Transforming a province into an independent nation would be an absolutely nightmarish task, and every new problem, every compromise would be hung around your neck forever as a result. Again, look at Brexit, only a thousand times worse.
Smith, I suspect, wants the appearance of fighting for Albertan Sovereignty, but not the reality.
According to his math, around seven-eighths of all Albertans who just voted for the federal Conservatives would have to back sovereignty for a "Yes" side to win.
7 out of 8 people who vote conservative would have to vote for something stupid?