I may as well get to bed, but I wish I would know before if the NDP will have enough seats to prop up an LPC minority. I'd hate to see the LPC+NDP be one or two seats short, leaving the CPC/BQ with enough votes to stymie everything. Right now it's sitting at 170 combined, need 172 or more to make it work.
You assume Carney would prefer working with the NDP over the BQ? I wouldn't be surprised if he preferred the BQ if only to strike a congenial tone and try to garner more support there so next time his majority is not in doubt
I'm not Canadian. Just an amateur psephologist who loves talking the theory of politics. I don't have my own sense of which party they'd rather work with.
I based that assumption on what other comments seemed to be making. Which was, yes, that Liberals would choose NDP over BQ.
Quite possible, but I stand by my prediction that the BQ is their more likely dance partner this time around. Not always, just not often than the dippers
I'm going to bed pretty quick, but CBC just said that it's about a 2,000 voter jump for the left when that advanced poll comes in, based on the ridings that are done. So, about 1.6% in a 125,000 person riding, or actually more because voting isn't mandatory.
1 short may as well be 2 short, because the house will elect a liberal speaker and reduce the vote number one more. But, whatever will happen is set in stone, waiting to be counted. I don't know why I engage with this as if its a story unfolding, like I can influence it by watching.
because the house will elect a liberal speaker and reduce the vote number one more
Oh, is that not built-in to the 172 requirement? In Australia we always talk about a requirement of 76 seats to win an election, because 75 after the speaker is selected is able to have control of Parliament. I assumed the CBC and others were doing the same here.
edit: actually, just ran the numbers. 343 seats total, minus one for speaker, halved is 171. Assuming Canadian speakers follow Speaker Denison's Rule, exactly half isn't enough, so you need 172. So it looks like it is built in.