Liberals Surge to between 42 and 49 Points as Progressive Voters Rally Behind Carney
Liberals Surge to between 42 and 49 Points as Progressive Voters Rally Behind Carney
[Ottawa – March 13, 2025] Mark Carney’s landslide victory as Liberal leader on Sunday has propelled the party to 49.5 per cent – a record high in our 26 years of IVR tracking. Most of these g…
Wow that’s a HUGE rise. I wonder what other polling firms will show this week.
EKOS is the clear outlier, but Leger has the Liberals tied on votes (which puts them at a likely win and a chance of a majority thanks to their far more efficient distribution) and Mainstreet has them with a five point lead.
It's also worth noting that EKOS has tended to predict recent trends in a way that other polling hasn't. They were the first to show the Liberal recovery happening at all. This poll is an outlier, but it agrees with the overall trend in the data, just more strongly.
This also aligns with polling on opinions and issues. Canadians, by far, see "Handling Trump" as their top priority right now, with "The Economy" in second, and Carney is seen as the best choice on both. While Pollievre polls decently on economy, he's seen as a total pushover or even a willing accomplice where Trump is concerned, thanks to his constant parroting of GOP talking points and his complete inability to openly condemn Trump's actions.
However, while this poll agrees with the overall direction, and EKOS has been a leading indicator, the odds of seeing actual results like this are incredibly slim. An actual election like this would give the CPC their lowest ever seat count since the merger. It would probably destroy the party entirely.
Hey, he's not a complete pushover, he put out a tweet (or an X?) confirming he's Canadian. He also changed "America" to "Canada" when he started reusing Trump's exact slogan. /s
Next, we really need proportional representation.
The liberal majority in Alberta is shocking. I never thought I'd see the day
From the article:
The Liberals enjoy decisive leads in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec. Curiously, the Liberals have a statistically insignificant edge in Alberta; however, this finding is almost certainly an artefact of chance given the small sample size in the province (this finding did not appear in our parallel Probit survey).
He's an Edmonton kid. Albertans like Albertans. Here's hoping we see this keep climbing.
I support the NDP but I have moved somewhere with little chance of a seat going that way so more than likely I'll go for whichever party shows better chance of beating the conservative candidate.
At this moment in time, this is the way.
I saw Liberals leading Alberta, which made me do a double take.
Then I read the small print. Yeah, keep your expectations in check it's not that hype.
Better than UCP? Or they don't run federally I guess? Idk much about Alberta
UCP was and no longer is the combination of the old AB Progressive Conservative Party and the alt right party Wildrose. Jason was a shortsighted greedy twit and Wildrose cannibalized his party from within as everyone could've and did predict. It was the only quick way to win an election again after the PC's disgraced themselves with a string of incompetent/corrupt leaders in a row and the ANDP finally won a single term. Unite The Right was the slogan. United Conservative Party. Straight forward naming.
UCP is a provincial party only. They're basically Republicans, and work with Take Back Alberta which are kinda like the Heritage Foundation behind Project 2025 in the USA. They're currently preoccupied with forcing diversity policy out of Edmonton Public Libraries.
Provincial Liberals are irrelevant here because the ANDP is closer to the political alignment of the federal Liberals than the federal NDP, so they're redundant. Federally the Liberals name has been mud in Alberta since Trudeau Sr. and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program
edit: ANDP only lost the last election by a couple thousand votes. Notley stepped down, Nenshi won leadership for opposition, the ex mayor of Calgary. Moved party further to center? I guess. That's the speculation, and Nenshi mused about changing the color from Orange to Purple. As in, mix conservative blue with center-left orange.
idk may as well give a better overview.
Other recent polls have put the Liberals in the lead, but not by this much. Time will tell if it's just a bit ahead of the curve or a true outlier.
Carney, Carney, he's our man, if he can't do it no one can
You love to see it.
A bankster, apart from the posture against Trump it won't be an upgrade from Trudeau. NDP are realy hopeless if they can't benefit from this mess.
Please not another liberal government, getting tired of the restrictions they place on law abiding citizens.
Which ones? Is it the "can't not pay for social services" restriction? The "can't secretly own a firearm" resteiction? Or the "can't overrule other countries' entry requirements" restriction?
Is it the "can't not pay for social services" restriction?
You mean unnecessary use of resources tax.
The "can't secretly own a firearm" resteiction?
Secret? The firearms bans are only affecting people apart of the Canadian Firearms Program, people who have gone through the CFSC and daily background checks.
You think criminals are actually going to follow the law and abide by these bans? It’s literal abuse of OIC just to take law abiding citizens property.
the "can't overrule other countries' entry requirements" restriction?
I assume you’re referring to the B.C women who was recently arrested over at the US border. Ultimately she went down there with incomplete documentation, like everyone else she should’ve sorted that out before even attempting to cross.
