• The US on Monday urged Americans in Belarus to leave the country immediately. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Following suit from a similar advisory in April, the US embassy in Minsk said that citizens "should depart immediately" and told Americans to use the remaining border crossings with Lithuania and Latvia or travel by plane. RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
• The development comes after Lithuania closed two of six border crossings with Belarus last week. Poland, meanwhile, closed all but one border crossing earlier in the year and announced the transfer of 10K troops to the border last week. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In its statement, the US embassy cited the recent developments, adding that: "The Polish, Lithuanian, and Latvian governments have stated that further closures of border crossings with Belarus are possible." U.S. Embassy in Belarus (a)
• Further reasons given by the embassy included: "Belarusian authorities' continued facilitation of Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the buildup of Russian military forces in Belarus, the arbitrary enforcement of local laws, the potential of civil unrest, the risk of detention, and the embassy's limited ability to assist US citizens residing in or traveling to Belarus." U.S. Embassy in Belarus (a)
• The warning was classified as a Level 4 risk — the highest possible warning — which comes under the title 'do not travel.' U.S. Embassy in Belarus (b)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Americans in Belarus currently face heightened risks, including increased chances of arrest and the possibility of not being able to leave the country if hostilities break out. This is a serious warning that should be immediately listened to and acted upon.
  Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The situation in Belarus is safe and stable. These are politically motivated developments aimed at giving the impression of a dangerous situation, even though that couldn't be further from the truth.
  MFA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 52% chance that Russia will significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)