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Ukrainian Airforce: Don't Expect F-16s Before Year's End

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Ukrainian Airforce: Don't Expect F-16s Before Year's End

  • Despite Ukraine's hopes of receiving F-16s this year, the country's airforce spokesman has ruled out acquiring the advanced American fighter jet until 2024. "It is already obvious that we will not be able to protect Ukraine with F-16 fighters this autumn and winter," Yurii Ihnat said in a televised broadcast late on Wednesday. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
  • He added, "We had high hopes for this aircraft, believing it would become part of air defense and be able to protect us from Russian missile and drone terrorism." Nevertheless, plans to train Ukrainian pilots on the planes had "moved forward," he said. Ukrainska Pravda
  • US Pres. Biden denied repeated Ukrainian requests for the fighter jet for over a year before finally reversing course in May, stating that he supported the idea of training Ukrainian pilots on the aircraft, as well as the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine from other countries. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
  • However, according to a CNN report earlier this month, European officials have yet to submit to the US a final training plan for pilots, which the US must reportedly authorize before training can begin. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
  • In a further report in the Washington Post last week, officials said that just six Ukrainian pilots are expected to be trained on flying the F-16s by July 2024. US officials speaking to the publication said that only eight of 32 pilots put forward by Ukraine passed the requisite English proficiency test. It also reported that the six chosen to undergo the training must first attend four months of English lessons in Britain to learn additional terminology associated with the planes. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
  • Meanwhile, John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesman, was asked to comment on whether there had been any developments in approving the training program at a press briefing on Wednesday. He said, "I don't have an update for you on when it's going to start or where, but we are actively working with our European allies and friends to see if we can get that training started as soon as we can." United States Department of State

Pro-establishment narrative:

  • The US is doing everything it can to get F-16s in the hands of Ukraine as soon as possible. However, it's a complicated process that not only involves training pilots but also ensuring that the maintenance and logistics processes are well established. Nonetheless, the US is moving swiftly.
    VOA

Establishment-critical narrative:

  • Russia's overwhelming air superiority has already caused Ukraine substantial problems in its counteroffensive. The longer that the US and international partners delay, the more Ukraine will suffer and the more emboldened Russian Pres. Putin will feel.
    Atlantic Council

Nerd narrative:

  • There's a 4% chance that there will be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
    Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)
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