I have a tough time imagining left-leaning voters would vote for Allred and not Harris, so that would require right-leaning voters casting votes for Trump but not Cruz. And I can't envision that being a common enough scenario to split the state-wide vote like that.
Do not underestimate how much some people (even in Texas) hate Ted Cruz. I can totally see a ticket split there.
I mean, if Beto "Psychedelic Warlord" O'Rourke can almost win there after threatening to grab everyone's guns, then there must be a lot of people looking for any alternative to Cruz.
If enough people make it to the polls, she could win.
Hillary lost by 5% of registered voters (800,000 votes), Biden by 3.5% of registered voters (~630,000 votes).
From what I've seen the first day of early voting (yesterday) was breaking records with over 45,000 votes cast in Travis County (Austin, TX) and Dallas cast over 55,000 votes. We just need the momentum to continue.
I voted yesterday in a packed blue district. It was crowded, which is good, but there was a notable absence of young voters, which is bad. Hopefully, this just means that experienced voters are more likely to vote on the first day of early voting and first time voters can be convinced to go to the polls before or on election day.
I hope you're right, but in 2016, Clinton thought the toss up and lean blue states were safe and chose to pile resources into lean red/safe red states like Missouri, Texas, and Indiana. Admittedly, the political landscape of 2024 is different. AZ was also targeted by Clinton and the rapid push left in Texas has them worried enough to pass laws to invalidate blue district votes. But still, I hope you're right and this isn't a huge gamble.
At the very least that texas senate is seriously winnable and they feel reasonably confident of other states
Still make sure to get out there and vote and volunteer. If it's a lose, make it a win. If it's a close win, make it a big one. If it's a big win, make it a landslide
Or, they suspect ratfuckery in more than a few states and want to make sure they don't ignore TX, because if they can shift it for Harris then it won't matter how much GA is ratfucked.
The Republican obsession with winning back California and the Democrat obsession with winning back Texas... The ghosts of Reagan and LBJ hoover over these parties eternally.
To MAGAs she's terrible and nothing will change that
To progressives she has massive policy differences, but at least she is aligned with us on basic democracy - something that should be a basic thing but isn't. What's she going to do, get progressives to vote for Trump?
To people who still cling to the thought of "your father's Republican party" - those who hoped Nikki Haley could somehow get Trump off the ticket early because they know he's an idiot/traitor - they could use that person to convey the message that yes, this is a Democrat but yes, you can and should vote for her because Trump is fucking bonkers and in no way represents the party you are clinging to in your head right now.
If people like Liz Cheney can get people to vote for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, I'm all for it.
I suspect Cheney is a toxic brand though. Over at the new blueprint polls, people for some reason trust Trump over Kamala in the category of election integrity. Adding Cheney to the crew might hurt as much as it helps.