ABC election analyst Antony Green says ACT Labor has won a seventh consecutive term in government
ABC election analyst Antony Green says ACT Labor has won a seventh consecutive term in government
The ABC's chief elections analyst Antony Green says there is no viable path for the Canberra Liberals, led by Elizabeth Lee, to form government.
Estimated Assembly build up is
10 Labour
10 Libs
3 Greens
1 IFC (Thomas Emmerson, seems to be left leaning)
1 Ind (Fiona Carrick, Nimby)
I'm not happy that greens lost three seats, but at the end of the day Lab/Greens coalition one so I'm okay
That's pretty much what I was expecting; the Liberals getting enough seats for a majority would have been quite surprising so it was really a matter of how close Lab/Lib would get and who Labor has to negotiate with. I am not surprised that Labour's primary vote is middling considering it's been two decades in power, the fact that they still hold power is a real testament to how badly the Libs are received in this town.
The rise of independents is interesting, and I can't say I dislike a shift away from party based politics. How it turns out is obviously going to be more variable though - I will be curious to see if they retain their seats after a term.
It's not massively surprising that Greens would be replaced with independents. They had the smaller primary vote share afaik, and Thomas Emmerson having Pococks support probably makes a difference.
Yes, it makes sense that they'd be the first to lose seats to another non-major candidate. Another possible factor is that the Greens lost protest vote value due to being known as part of the incumbent government - that's going to attract less of the votes from people who want something different (but aren't going to vote for the Libs).
Also on the ABC panel, the Lib reps were leaking some internal tea, which was fun.