• The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Friday that oil prices could increase further as major suppliers tighten supply amid rising global demand. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The IEA's prediction comes as oil touched a six-month high above $88 a barrel in London amid the post-pandemic resurgence in oil consumption and supply restraint by the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+). Bloomberg
• In 2023, the agency estimates that global oil demand will increase by 2.2M barrels per day (bpd) to an average of 102.2M bpd, risking further price hikes and the reduction of oil inventories if OPEC+ doesn't change its current production targets. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• A more balanced oil market is expected for 2024 as the US, Brazil, and Guyana are likely to counter production cuts and drive an increase in supplies by 1.5M bpd while demand is forecast to rise by 1M bpd. Wall Street Journal (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• However, OPEC+ expects oil demand to grow by 2.44M bpd this year and a much stronger 2.25M bpd in 2024 — a stark contrast to the IEA's estimate. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• After the IEA's forecast, oil prices increased significantly, marking the seventh week of gains — the longest streak since 2022. Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures both rose 0.5% week-over-week. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• Though Pres. Biden has been accused of being an enemy of the American oil industry, it's precisely during his stint that oil production is set to reach 12.8M bpd for the first time — nearly 3M bpd more than Saudi Arabia, the next-closest producer. Republicans may unfoundedly claim that Biden is to blame for increasing oil prices when growing domestic output is, in fact, cushioning the impact of OPEC+ output cuts.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• If the US oil industry has been able to counter OPEC+ production cuts, it's not due to Biden since he's an outspoken critic who has expressed his ambition to stop all drilling across the US. If America had a consistent energy agenda focused on its people's best interests instead of the ESG movement's, domestic oil output would be even higher.
  FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that US crude oil production will reach 13 million barrels per day by May 22, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)