How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election | A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022?
How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election | A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022?
In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.
In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.
This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses “weighting on recalled vote,” which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.
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Polling has been unreliable for a decade. It is literally never statistically as accurate as it used to be for a million reasons. It gives the broadest possible view for limited regions, but has not been showing statistically relevant results. When was the last time ANYONE here answered a call from an unrecognized number and answered polling questions here?
I don't know why they keep writing articles like this.
I answered an unknown number recently because it was from an area code I was expecting a call. It turned out to be a pollster, at least they presented themselves as such. The first few questions seemed reasonable, but then it quickly became obvious that it was a call supporting someone running for local office pretending to be a poll. I was not going to vote for that person to begin with, but this was really disgusting.
Because it's part of the sports-ification of politics.
I actually answered an unrecognized local number on Saturday thinking it might be a pollster, but it was my local voter turnout organization calling to make sure I intended to vote and to see if I needed a ride to the voting center.