There is zero chance that there is not going to be fairly significant violence from Trump's supporters between November and January.
It will happen, absolutely no matter what.
Either he's going to lose, in which case they're going to engage in retaliatory and/or insurrectionary violence, or he's going to win (or be handed the win by the Supreme Court Rubber-stamping Service), in which case they're going to engage in celebratory, very enthusiastic and likely officially sanctioned violence.
That's it. At this point, there is no third option. Trump, in his pathological narcissism and complete lack of empathy or sound reason, has fostered an atmosphere of anger and hatred, and it's not a question of if it will result in violence and murder, but simply of when and of what specifically will touch it off.
When Obama was sending the Seals after Obama, Biden was trying to talk him out of it. I mean look at the bag of cement he appointed as AG. Biden won't say boo to a goose.
or he’s going to win (or be handed the win by the Supreme Court Rubber-stamping Service),
I agree with your comment in general and apologize for what may sound like a bit of a flippant reply, but I actually think what would worry me the most is if it it goes to SCOTUS and they somehow do NOT install Trump. I think the super-faithful deep-state-believers would lose their effing minds at that turn of events - this is where I would expect to see the violence ramping up the fastest.
Unfortunately, there's likely some truth to that. In spite of the SC fairly consistently destroying the rule of law to rule on Trump's behalf, if even one time they rule against him, even on just one ruling that's so vividly obvious that the otherwise wholly corrupt and compromised SC can't possibly cobble together an excuse to rule in Trump's favor, that really is likely to touch off more violence quicker than just about anything else.
We need a landslide for Kamala - Enough to scare at least a few republican SC members out of giving the win to the GoP out of fear of lynching when a bunch of states inevitably refuse to certify results
Then we need to be prepared for an actual attack on the government and pissed off Trumpers killing citizens
Can't assume anything but worst case and prepare for it as the GoP is in full Hitler's Nazi Party mode
Agreed. Kamala had the start of that during/ before the campaign. Like actually great performance. Since/ during the campaign, she's shifted to the right, focusing mostly on how "good she is for business" and touting Republican endorsements. She refused to engage with the uncommitted movement. Before the convention, her trajectory had her heading into the 50-55% zone by election day. That stalled out with her rightwing shift. She's on track to lose this election.
Hillary lost despite winning the popular vote by a +2% spread
Biden won with a 4.5% spread in the popular vote
Obama won by 7% and reelected by ~4%
It's not just that Democrats need to win big to shut the other side up, they need to win big just to overcome their inherent disadvantage in the electoral college.
With Kamala sitting around 2.2% nationally on average, being within the margin of error of the states she needs to win, and her momentum seemingly stalled for the reasons you listed, Democrats should be worried.
As someone who would vote for her, or just about anyone who is not Donald Trump, I hate this.
Can’t assume anything but worst case and prepare for it
Stock up for a couple months worth of supplies and food. Ensure you have some alternative ways to heat and cook food. Have some self defense strategies/supplies. It is a good idea to prepare for an emergency anyway.
Worst case scenario, you are prepared for a natural disaster or power outage or a strike.
And after that, we need a revolution. Everyone appointed by Trump will be given the option of resigning office or being relocated to Gitmo. This has not been politics as normal. This has been an attempt to resurrect the late 19th-century spoils system.
I don't doubt there are lots of contingency planning going on, and it's not always good to make those plans public, but I'd sure feel better knowing there are plans to combat the certain fuckery
Main concern is the "Refuse to certify -> Goes to SC -> SC hands the win to the GoP" type fuckery that could happen. No idea what their plans are for that. Outside of that, I assume there will be a lot of military on standby but not obviously so
Leading up to Jan 6th there were weeks of MAGA's posting openly about their plans across social media, then the day came and it turned out there was zero contingency planning.
The most powerful "intelligence" and surveillance apparatus in history just let it happen... I know this, because I live on the opposite side of the planet, and knew a coup attempt was guaranteed from nothing but reddit links to other social media.
Oh man, if only biden knew someone in a position of power that had a responsibility to not let that occur. Oh well. So sick of democrats throwing up their hands and tripping over their dicks. We're going to shrug our way into global fascism.
If I were him, I'd make quiet preparations. Probably he has, because he's had four years to do so. We know military leaders have discussed the issue, right? Which means POTUS has, too. But what actions taken, that we don't know.
Stochastic terrorism. That's what he and Vance are knowingly exercising. That seems like something that should be dealt with, regardless of the political implications. People have died because of Trumps liberal and deliberate use of this form of communication to his batshit legion.
But then again, nothing makes sense any more. The reality that this race is as close as it is sums it all up, I suppose. To quote NOFX, The idiots are taking over.
Ya know, I kinda feel the same way, based on specific things said and done by the GOP and their candidates. Well, actually it's more of a thought, or belief, based on factual evidence.
Vance couldn't even bring himself to say Trump lost. So it is clear there won't be a peaceful transfer of power. No how much respect Dems try to show them.