In previous downturns the world turned to China as an engine of growth – this time that driver may not be there
In previous downturns the world turned to China as an engine of growth – this time that driver may not be there
What might Chinese deflation mean for interest rates, commodity prices and even EV exports outside China?
The western world could also turn to investment in development and quality of life and do away with downturns.
That is what the infrastructure bill is technically doing in the US.
That bill is peanuts compared to what needs to be spent, and much of it will be siphoned off the top by capital
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The International Monetary Fund too singled out China in its latest world economic outlook as among the “downside” tilts to its balance of risks.
When China on Tuesday reported weaker-than-expect trade figures for July – including a nearly 15% fall in exports – iron ore prices were among those to take a tumble.
Cotton imports by China have dropped to their lowest in five years, Rabobank’s research arm notes, citing US data, as exports of garments and footwear fall.
“This makes central banks’ job a smidgen easier, shaving some interest rate hikes off the top of their tightening cycles.”
“As China battles with structural concerns in its property market and a limping transition to consumer-led growth, this driver may not be there to support to the same extent this time.”
Murphy Cruise is among economists who don’t expect China’s deflation to linger as government efforts to spur tourism, car sales and even renovations gain traction.
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