The Dangerous Illusion of a Presidential Third Party in 2024

certain lemmy users around these parts absolutely frothing at the mouth seeing this graph

If Americans want a third choice support ranked choice voting

Im glad you posted this, but no both-sides smoothbrain will be convinced by it, since they are either lost on the plot, a bad faith actor, or unable to engage in real world politics.

Still saving it, just to have one more post to bash them over the head with.

I know of a couple of Lemmy users who frequently hype third party candidates, and who will not like this analysis at all, lol.

The underlying fallacy, IMO, is that people think the purpose of elections is to send a message to the government, instead of choosing the government (and that all political problems can be solved by sending the right message).

The best way to approach an election is to determine the most likely scenario in which your vote would actually decide the outcome (which in practice means a choice between the two frontrunners in a FPTP system), and then consider what difference that would make in terms of actual policy (rather than symbolism).

And recognize that this alone won’t fix all the problems with government—that will require other types of involvement beyond voting.

I feel like the most viable path to a third party at this point:

1. Ranked choice somehow becomes national law (and while we're at it, other election reform) --- yes, already very unlikely here, although it'd help Dems with reelection so under them it's possible if they get rid of the filibuster. Gop would never.
2. Splinters make a better third party, I'm thinking the "RINO"s or MAGA folk. Maybe the progressive wing of Democrars. The current third parties are pretty bad as they are given they don't seem to target places they could actually win.
3. Said faction gets more traction and the model gets tested for a few elections until it's more normal. New paries emerge, etc.

It ain't happening mostly cause of 1, either because the political capital would be too expensive or because it's not ultimately in their interest. The only way 1 can happen is if it becomes a major issue and they've got much more lower hanging fruit, even in election rules (I'd be happy just having electrical college changed to popular vote).

Funny how third parties always rear their heads at election time but remain almost entirely quiet the rest of the term. Where does the money come from?

We are a two party system.

I wouldn't take this graphic too seriously...

Oh wow, thirdway.org says you can’t have an alternative to two candidates who don’t represent you and have to choose between the candidates offered to you no matter your politics!

You don’t say!

In case any reader of this post isn’t aware: thirdway.org is the website for people associated with the Third Way which is described as a triangulation between communism and capitalism but ends up still being capitalism somehow.

Using Third Way as a source? The same organization that helped push the entire party and country to the right? Bill Clinton and Third Way started the shift to the right and Harris finalized that transition to become the dominant conservative party.

Why do other countries get more than two choices but we cant?

I don't live in a swing state, I get to vote for whoever I want. Lets not pretend like the election doesnt boil down to half a million voters in like 4 or 5 different states. This is as much a reality as anything you've said, probably more.

Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was not due to any erosion in support for Donald Trump. Rather, not only did Trump’s raw vote total increase, but in the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump’s share of the vote actually increased.

Still mind-boggling and a source of great personal disgust while being a national disgrace. One can only hope that enough people have soured on him since then, after countless displays of racism, xenophobia, sexism, authoritarianism, bigotry, and incompetence. A twice impeached loser felon grifter that's clearly a russian asset should not stand a chance, yet here we are. Makes me sad.

Between the people trying to give you healthcare and secure your job, and the people trying to let your miscarrying wife bleed out in the parking lot of a for-profit hospital, some morons prefer the latter. Why? "because he's racist like me!" seems to be the deciding factor. Yes, that is why my parents are voting for him. and my mom is a poll-worker 🤦‍♂️

Quick some body run as a super conservative as a third party and take away some GOP votes please.

That's such a messed up pie chart. It shows numerically 51% but the pie wedge is smaller than 48%. Man, I can only handle SO much in a day!!!

Florida 2020 graph is not visually accurate.

Media Bias Fact Check | bot support

If you live in a swing state or any state that is up for grabs, then yeah don't vote for third party. If your in a deep blue/red state, I'm talking > 15 percent swing, vote for whoever you want in the presidential, your votes just going to get collapsed into the state vote for the electoral college any way. Should still vote for the two parties or whoever's competitive in state and local elections because your vote can have an effect.

If the electoral college says my vote effectively doesn't matter in deciding the next president since I'm in California, then at least let me use my vote to send some sort of message.

Https://youtu.be/s7tWHJfhiyo

Not going to vote your way out of this one unfortunately