Tl;Dr: Not anytime soon. It fails even at simple tasks.
Even if it didn't, any middle manager who decides to replace their dev team with AI is going to realize pretty quickly that actually writing code is only a small part of the job.
Won't stop 'em from trying, of course. But when the laid-off devs get frantic calls from management asking them to come back and fix everything, they'll be in a good position to negotiate a raise.
If anything. AI could be used to replace managers 😆 I mean lots of management seems to be just pushing paper to me. Ideal to be handled by AI. But I think we still need people to do the real work for quite some time to come. Especially software architecture and coding (complex) stuff ain't easy. Neither is project management. So I guess even some managers can stay.
The rule of any article asking asking a question in its title is that the answer is always no.
AI is actually great at typing the code quickly. Once you know exactly what you want. But it's already the case that if your engineers spend most of their time typing code, you're doing something wrong. AI or no AI.
I don't think so. I've had success letting it write boilerplate code. And simple stuff that I could have copied from stack overflow. Or a beginners programming book. With every task from my real life it failed miserably. I'm not sure if I did anything wrong. And it's been half a year since I last tried. Maybe things have changed substantially in the last few months. But I don't think so.
Last thing I tried was some hobby microcontroller code to do some robotics calculations. And ChatGPT didn't really get what it was supposed to do. And additionally instead of doing the maths, it would just invent some library functions, call them with some input values and imagine the maths to be miraculously be done in the background, by that nonexistent library.
Yes actually, I can imagine it getting microcontroller code wrong. My niche is general backend services. I've been using Github copilot a lot and it served me well for generating unit tests. Write test description and it pops out the code with ~ 80% accuracy
Not until it's better at QA than I am. Good luck teaching a machine how stupid end-users can be.
"software developer says ai will not replace software developers" feels very John Henry
tbh that is vastly more reliable than "seller of hardware used to train AI models says AI will replace developers"
Even if the AI was at the point if outputing exactly what you want correcly, decision makers would still need to be able to specify exactly what they want and need. "I want a website that pops" isn't going to cut it.
people look at this stuff as a yes or no and that's a major misunderstanding.
I work in tech, and I can tell you 100% you could not just give a job to AI and call it a day.
I cannot even imagine this type of response generation ever being capable of that without developing some sort of true intelligence if for no other reason than to turn bad prompts by people who do not understand what they want or what is possible into functional projects.
that said, but I do believe is possible is that it makes like 5 to 10% of the job a little bit faster. programming is like 10 to 20% writing code and 80 to 90% understanding what that code should be and why it isn't working that way yet.
Even the code you get from it is generally wrong but sometimes useful.
best case scenario I could see right now is not that it replaces jobs but that it makes people more effective, kind of like giving a framer a nail gun instead of a box of nails and a hammer except not that big of an efficiency gain.
ultimately this might mean you do the job with 8 people instead of 10, or something like that.
if it reduced the total number of jobs because it was a tool that made people more effective - did it take the job away?
Tl;Dr: Not anytime soon. It fails even at simple tasks.
Even if it didn't, any middle manager who decides to replace their dev team with AI is going to realize pretty quickly that actually writing code is only a small part of the job.
Won't stop 'em from trying, of course. But when the laid-off devs get frantic calls from management asking them to come back and fix everything, they'll be in a good position to negotiate a raise.
If anything. AI could be used to replace managers 😆 I mean lots of management seems to be just pushing paper to me. Ideal to be handled by AI. But I think we still need people to do the real work for quite some time to come. Especially software architecture and coding (complex) stuff ain't easy. Neither is project management. So I guess even some managers can stay.