That's the beauty of multiple instances. As long as people push heading to join-lemmy.org over any one particular instance, things should be mostly okay.
Yep, if they can find a smaller, specialised, or localised instance it is better for the network for them to join that and learn to subscribe to others rather than lumping on one big server.
It's just a little awkward for new users to subscribe and navigate across instances at the moment, but new features and "gasp" third party apps can make that easier.
There is https://lemmyverse.net/ as an alternative, I don't see any immediately shady communities in the top of the listing. Though it does put lemmy.ml as #1, which isn't ideal since it'd probably draw a lot of people right to it.
Lemmy.World by far has a stronger server than lemmy.ml you can get details here and here I think Lemmy.World is by far in a better position than the rest so they might be okay? Lemmy.ml is still struggling.
Do we really think thereโs going to be that many more users joining once the API policy goes into effect? I feel like most people who were going to leave Reddit have already left. Idk, I could be wrong. But why would people be back there if theyโre just going to leave in July?
I think there'll be a lot more, since so far people have only left for ideological reasons. Once they actually lose access to reddit via third party apps, it'll be a lot easier to justify moving on.
And there are probably people still hoping that reddit will reverse their decision or somehow fix things before the changes take effect.
I am in this boat. Comments by spez make a reversal seem impossible at this pointโฆbut Iโm still using Reddit through Apollo until Apollo is disabled.
I think a couple of powerusers, that still hoped to change something with the blackout, will check Lemmy out after the new policy started. But I don't expect a huge wave.
When the 3PAs are actually gone and when they open Apollo or other app, that user is not going to be ok with the official Reddit app and theyโll look for an alternative. I bet a bunch end up on Lemmy or kbin.