• The Security Service of Ukraine, known as the SBU, has claimed responsibility for an attack on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk [in Russia's Krasnodar Krai region] in the early hours of Friday. Ukrainska Pravda
• The agency released video footage that appeared to show a Ukrainian sea drone ramming into a Russian navy ship, before exploding. An SBU source told Ukrainian media that the sea drone struck Russia's Olenegorskiy Gornyak naval vessel, alleging that there was now a large hole in its hull and that it could no longer carry out combat operations. Ukrainska Pravda
• Meanwhile, Russia's defense ministry issued a statement in which it claimed to have repelled the attack. "Earlier today, the armed forces of Ukraine launched two unmanned sea boats to attack the naval base in Novorossiysk. Responding to the attack, Russian warships visually detected and destroyed the unmanned boats using standard weapons," the ministry said. TASS
• However, footage circulating on social media showed a ship resembling the Olenegorskiy Gornyak listing to one side and being towed back to port. NBC News reported that it confirmed the video was filmed in Novorossiysk and that the ship shown in the footage was in the same class of warship as the one in question. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Ukraine first unveiled its sea drone — the MAGURA V5 — at the International Defense Industry Fair in Turkey late last month. According to industry reports, it travels at 50 cm (20 inches) above the waterline, can reach speeds of up to 42 knots, and can carry an explosive payload of 705 lb (320 kg). Національний Промисловий Портал
• However, this was not the first time the sea drones have been used. In an interview last week, Vasyl Maliuk, head of Ukraine's SBU, said the new weapon was used to strike the Kerch Bridge in Crimea last month, as well as an Oct. 2022 attack on the Crimean port city of Sevastopol, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• This attack in Russia's port of Novorossiysk has damaged a ship that was frequently used in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It has now been put out of action for the foreseeable future.
  Ukrainska Pravda

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Russian warships have completely repelled Ukraine's attack on the Novorossiysk port. Two sea drones were detected on approach and were promptly destroyed in the operation.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 40% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)