• Almost two months after Ukraine's counteroffensive was launched on June 4, multiple reports have suggested that the effort has largely fallen short of expectations, with Ukrainian units reportedly changing tactics in the hope of improving their odds. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Diagnosis of the shortcomings was provided in the New York Times and Guardian reports, both coming after a journalists' briefing with US military officials at the Pentagon this week. Namely, they called into question the effectiveness of thrusting newly formed Ukrainian brigades into battle, after they had received just four to six weeks' training from Western partners. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The reports also pointed to Russia's heavily fortified defensive lines, which have been jam-packed with mines. The Times report stated that, in the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, as much as 20% of the weaponry deployed by Ukraine was either damaged or destroyed. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In light of these conditions, both outlets — citing US officials — said that Ukraine has changed how it's attacking, now opting for smaller units that advance on foot while clearing the minefields. It's also being reported that units previously held-back have now been thrust into battle in the hopes of invigorating Ukraine's attack. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• As such, Ukraine has made territorial gains on multiple axes, but forces have reportedly not yet reached Russia's main defensive lines. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Officials cited by both publications nonetheless suggested it was too soon to describe the counteroffensive as a failure, adding that, despite the difficulties, Ukrainian forces can still break through and push Russia back. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• There are numerous examples from history of offensives being stalled for several months before they achieved a decisive breakthrough. Ukraine's current progress may be slow, but they're methodically advancing and denigrating Russian defenses. This fight is far from over.
  Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Despite Western promises that Ukraine's counteroffensive will simply sweep away Russian forces — who have air and artillery superiority and have taken months to prepare defensive lines — leaders must be honest about the realities on the ground. Now is the time for a negotiated settlement, not for the needless sacrifice of additional Ukrainian lives.
  Responsible Statecraft

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 4% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)