This isn't really true in this election. Usual caveats, I'm voting blue and all that.
But likely voter polls favor Biden more than registered voters. There's straight up not a linear regression of people voting to democratic winners like this presents. It's bad statistics.
People who don't pay attention to politics at all are more likely to vote for Trump. I think that makes a lot of sense. People who pay attention aren't as likely to vote for him as people who don't really follow.
Project 2025 is really only in recent headlines. Those people have at least 8 years of info to work with. If they say they're not aware of how shitty Trump is then they're just as shitty as he is because they're clearly lying to save face.
I'm not saying it's an excuse, but the people in question are supporters of women's rights and LGBTQ+ (amongst other things), but they don't believe that trump is a threat in that manner.
Humans can be pretty stupid... Yes, I'm sure most of his supporters are actually approving of his shittiness, but I also think that some people are easily misled, especially if they don't pay attention to the news or only get their news from one source.