Best-case scenario [model]: 5% [would] survive Milford Sound tsunami
Best-case scenario [model]: 5% [would] survive Milford Sound tsunami
New research shows that a tsunami in Milford Sound could leave no survivors, making it New Zealand's worst disaster.
A recent Master's thesis has found a Milford Sound tsunami - triggered by a landslide - may leave no survivors, with as many as 3500 dying if the wave hits during the peak of the tourist season.
The new modelling, which builds on more than a decade of research, shows the best chance of survival relies on people running for higher ground before the shaking stops.
The best-case scenario shows 5.2 percent of people would survive the wave, and in this case the tsunami would have to hit at night, during the winter offseason, when only a few hundred people would be in the area.
Edited title to make it sound less like there was just a tsunami and everyone died.
Scary, yes. But it's funny really in some regards, when you think about our tolerance to risk - I live practically on top of the Alpine Fault yet barely give it a second thought. And we're up in Auckland for the weekend - I was surprised to discover that Rangitoto Island is only 600 years old - 2M+ people living 'on' a barely dormant volcano is kinda terrifying.
I'm sure there's a name for the formal Fallacy that applies here - Acceptable Risk maybe?
Well, I guess when you size up the risk it may not actually be that high compared to everyday activities. What's the risk of being killed in a car crash vs a volcanic eruption happening on Rangitoto over the course of a lifetime?
Hubris
Alright, well I’ll cross that place off my rental search list.
Oh thank god, I seriously misinterpreted that headline.