Joe Biden suddenly leads convicted felon Donald Trump in multiple battleground states
Joe Biden suddenly leads convicted felon Donald Trump in multiple battleground states
The Democratic president is leading his Republican challenger in three key states ahead of the presidential election.
Polls don't matter, especially this far out.
Vote. Put pressure on politicians to do better. But more than anything. Vote.
If the polls say he's 100% going to win. Vote. If you're in a state that goes blue every time for the last 100 years. Vote. If you're in a state that goes red every time for the last 100 years. Vote.
Nice to hear it, but yeah FUCKING VOTE!!!
Wow, it's almost like putting the entire weight of the RNC behind a convicted felon in a rematch against the guy he already lost to once in order to control the voting power of the cult that formed around him is, dare I say it, a bad political move? Like, such a bad political move that even somebody who knows absolutely nothing about politics should have been able to see this one coming?
Imagine how detached from reality you need to be to genuinely believe that getting slapped with a felony conviction will somehow help your campaign.
Yup, this is why we follow it over time.
It went from pro Biden, to waffling back and forth, to pro Trump, to waffling back and forth, and now, here we are!
Let's check the usual suspects:
Arizona: Tie, Biden+2, Trump+2-+4 Waffling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: No useful polling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Georgia: Trump +5/+6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania: Biden +1/+2 to Trump +2 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan: Tie to Trump+1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Biden +2/+7 to Trump +1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/Minnesota: Tie, Biden+2, Trump +3/+5 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/What this looks like mapped out:
This actually is an improvement for Biden who had been losing several of these.
If Trump takes either PA or MI, it's game over. He only needs one of them to win.
After that, Trump needs any 2 of the remaining 4 states to win and Biden needs 3/4.
If Biden takes Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Trump takes Arizona, that means it will all come down to New Mexico and we have ZERO useful polling out of New Mexico, absolutely none.
Turns out that Moderate heavy states like Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan don't want to vote for a felon that threatens to jail his enemies.
This is a big deal. I'm extremely excited to get a look into these data. This would be an INCREDIBLE thing considering that Biden has been lagging Trump in the polls for over 450 days.
And whoever tells you polls don't matter has their head up their ass. Polls do matter, a lot, especially this far out. People aren't a monolith. People do change their minds and perspectives.
Apparent viability matters. Even a 2-5% hit in polling to Trump can take him from the range of viable to non-viable.
And yes, polling is flawed. In 2016 and 2020, the polling massively underestimated support for Trump. We need to keep this in mind when we look at these numbers,.
Keeping in mind that the trajectory of Bidens polling was into the carpet, pretty much since the inauguration.
If Biden can shift this towards an upward trend, he's suddenly back in the game. Thats a sea change. Thats huge.
I'm all for protest votes and sending a message IF you don't live in a swing state. People who live in swing states have the privilege of their vote actually mattering in the grand scheme. Please, please hold your nose and vote for Biden. We non-swing staters can take care of sending messages from the safety of our deep reds and blues.
Is convicted felon now the convicted felon's nickname?
well that's an accomplishment to be sure
This is the best summary I could come up with:
President Joe Biden has overtaken his Republican challenger Donald Trump in three battleground states, according to polls five months before the presidential election.
In March, the incumbent and the former president won enough primary races to secure, respectively, the Democratic and Republican nominations in the 2024 presidential election.
Polls have so far shown that the results will be tight as the pair are statistically tied in most surveys, or enjoying only marginal leads.
However, speaking to Newsweek Todd Landman, a professor of political science at Nottingham University in the U.K., said it was "still too far out from the election" to read much into swing state polls.
He said: "The race remains highly volatile, and it is still too far out from the election to make any firm conclusion from changing polls across these swing states."
"The Hunter Biden proceedings in Delaware are just underway and there is a very long time to go politically, with many unknown events that will have effects on voter preferences and choices at the national and state level," he said.
The original article contains 538 words, the summary contains 176 words. Saved 67%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
Trump is convicted on 34 felony counts
WOW BIDEN HAS A SUDDEN LEAD AGAINST DONALD TRUMP, SO CRAZY
"suddenly"...Newsweek, you sound a little pissed?