Nice, that's a pretty favorable article. I actually learned a few things from it, mostly about kbin. He really gets into a bunch of the features that Lemmy and Kbin have that reddit does not.
The only correction I would make is that Kbin does let you follow communities from other instances (even Lemmy instances).
Until a couple weeks ago, it would show local magazines first... but if you dug deep enough, after all the local magazines were listed it would start listing remote communities across Lemmy/Kbin.
It's changed very recently to always sort everything by subscriber count, with an option to toggle between local magazines and everything on the threadiverse.
As far as "I tried to go to posts I knew existed but weren't showing up" - like everywhere else on the fediverse, someone needs to follow that content first. So the reason why they saw their Mastodon content is because someone followed their Mastodon account from Kbin. When they searched for things that didn't appear, it's because nobody on Kbin was following those accounts.
If they searched the full @username@instance.social and hit "follow", then future posts would appear in the microblog tag and be searchable.
That's how growth works on social media, it comes in waves. We are basically in the first wave, because there were only a few thousand people here before June. Its going to take a while before we build up enough organic momentum to cause a second wave, unless reddit makes another oopsie; they could trigger another wave at any moment.
The curve is fine, what you're seeing is the bleeding of alternate accounts. Many of us made 2 or more accounts on different instances early on, and many of those initial alts are now becoming inactive as people settle on their preferred servers. The rate of active user growth is slower than the rate of attrition right now, but that's only because the rate of attrition is so high. That should stabilize in the coming weeks.
Look at threads, their activity declined like 70% after a week or two. Lemmy is actually retaining users at a much higher percentage than the average social media site, it's just that we haven't gotten enough people to give it a try yet.
Then there were a few other waves. I wasn't around for any of them, but I know in late 2021/early 2022 Beehaw was created. I believe Beehaw split off from Tildes, which is another Reddit clone run by a former Reddit admin (who also made AutoModerator).
Then, in May 2023, we saw the first wave of people coming over from Reddit. As the other person mentioned, there were really multiple smaller waves... usually corresponding with an announcement the Reddit admins made. The blackout gave the biggest wave.
Since the start of July, it's largely petered back. A lot of the folks who are diehard anti-Reddit are here, but until Reddit fucks up again it'll probably quiet down.
Reddit will fuck up again, mind. Digg didn't die instantly, either - it was a slow, drawn-out death.
I think you're the fourth or fifth wave actually, there were a lot of smaller waves before the current reddit migration. The reddit migration also probably had two waves
when the api changes first went viral
when third party apps actually shut down
though #2 may not have increased accounts by much.
Lemmy is actually retaining users at a much higher percentage than the average social media site, it’s just that we haven’t gotten enough people to give it a try yet.
The slight difficulty in joining probably helps with this. You have to actually commit a little to join
Lemmy has had a lot of bugs fixed and performance improvements since the big wave, I think next one will go more smoothly and it probably won't be so intimidating
Eh, I think Lemmy has reached a critical mass of users to sustain itself in terms of content in the long term. Every misstep that Reddit takes will bring about more migrations, and the platform is on its way to form its own identity. It's wait and see, at this point.
My main concern is complying to GDPR-like regulations, given that federation means that the content in each instance may be stored elsewhere in a more permanent way, compared to a centralised service like Reddit. This might threaten Lemmy and Kbin in the future, I think.