The factors behind the failure to prevent a terrorist attack include a distrust of foreign intelligence, a focus on Ukraine and a distracting political crackdown at home.
The adversarial relationship between Washington and Moscow prevented U.S. officials from sharing any information about the plot beyond what was necessary, out of fear Russian authorities might learn their intelligence sources or methods.
We told them there was an increased risk. They don’t need to know how we know or the specifics. They chose not to listen or act, and completely dismissed our advice as nonsense. This is on them.
The US publicly said that there was an increased risk in Moscow for the 48 hours following March 7th. Whether they privately said anything more is unknown (neither side is too eager to share).
Indeed, for the 48 hours following March 7th, security at places like Crocus City Hall was ramped up.
Edit: would you like to hazard a guess as to what was happening at Crocus City Hall on March 7th-9th?
The firehose of falsehood is a propaganda technique in which a large number of messages are broadcast rapidly, repetitively, and continuously over multiple channels (such as news and social media) without regard for truth or consistency. An outgrowth of Soviet propaganda techniques, the firehose of falsehood is a contemporary model for Russian propaganda under Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Jewish Nazis in Ukraine funded ISIS! The CIA funded the ISIS attack! The CIA didn't warn us! The CIA didn't warn us in time! This was done by ISIS! This was done by Ukraine! The attackers were fleeing to Ukraine! They were fleeing to Belarus but we stopped them! We are war with NATO! We are not at war with NATO. If NATO gives Ukraine F16s Russia will be at war with NATO. If NATO gives Ukraine F16s, Russia will shoot them down, but not be at war with NATO!
Honestly the fact they gave them a heads-up at all is extra. If Russia knew about an attack coming in America they would 100% keep that shit to themselves.
During the Obama administration, the national security director (I think) created the policy of "duty to inform". The idea being that American intelligence agencies had a duty to inform a target if they knew about an upcoming attack (even an adversary). A big exception is when the warning would compromise the source of the information.
Mr. Bortnikov, the F.S.B. director, said on Tuesday that Islamist extremists alone couldn’t possibly have carried out the attack. He blamed, among others, the United States.
Gee, I dunno how three or four lunatics could acquire guns.
Internal Russian intelligence reporting that most likely circulated at the highest levels of the government warned of the increased likelihood of an attack in Russia by ethnic Tajiks radicalized by ISIS-K, according to information obtained by the Dossier Center, a London research organization, and reviewed by The New York Times.
But as Mr. Putin has advanced his political crackdown at home, its list of targets ballooned to include opposition figures like Aleksei A. Navalny, who died last month in a Russian prison, and his supporters, as well as L.G.B.T.Q.
is a political police force, and as such it reflects Kremlin concerns,” said Mark Galeotti, a specialist on Russia’s security operations and a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Russia is one of the chief military backers of the Islamic State’s opponents in the Middle East, including Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, making Russian interests a key target of the Islamist extremist group.
The failure to prevent the attack was probably the result of a combination of other factors, including fatigue after being “especially alert” during the period before Russia’s recent presidential election, said a European security official, who tracks the activities of the Russian intelligence services.
Large terrorist attacks on Russian soil attributed to international groups like the Islamic State or Al Qaeda have been rare, and the country’s domestic security services have less experience tracking those threats and are less skilled at penetrating Central Asian extremist cells.
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The attack was claimed by ISIS-K - a foreign fighter offshoot/offbrand. Funny thing is that ISIS-K fighters were getting lifts from American chanook helicopters in Afghanistan and is largely made up of US assets and/or people formerly trained by the US in Afghanistan.
Lots points to it being a CIA asset, tldr. They're a dirty army that can be used to keep an area distabilised or prevent other geopolitical powers from building infrastructure/influence (the nutshell purpose of ISIS-K, particularly in Afghanistan to prevent pipelines being built).
They had the inside scoop on an attack outside any usual operating theatre by a group with tangible links to US cooperation/orientation? No kidding.