Westminster Voting Intention: Con 24% (-4) | Lab 48% (+2) | Lib Dem 11% (+2) | Other 17% (-1) Via Deltapoll.
Westminster Voting Intention: Con 24% (-4) | Lab 48% (+2) | Lib Dem 11% (+2) | Other 17% (-1) Via Deltapoll.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is twenty-four percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 24% (-4)
Lab 48% (+2)
Lib Dem 11% (+2)
Other 17% (-1)
Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023 | Sample: 1,000 GB adults | (Changes from 7th-10th July 2023)
Flavible:
| Party | Pred % | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|
| CON 🌳 | 24.0% | 119 |
| LAB 🌹 | 48.0% | 425 |
| LD 🔶 | 11.0% | 47 |
| REFUK ➡️ | 6.0% | 0 |
| Green 🌍 | 5.0% | 1 |
| SNP 🎗️ | 3% | 32 |
| PC 💮 | 1% | 4 |
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON 🌳 | 44.7% | 376 | 24.0% | 0 | 309 | -309 | 67 |
| LAB 🌹 | 33.0% | 197 | 48.0% | 320 | 0 | +320 | 517 |
| LIB 🔶 | 11.8% | 8 | 11% | 13 | 0 | +13 | 21 |
| Reform ➡️ | 2.1% | 0 | 6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green 🌍 | 2.8% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP 🎗️ | 4.0% | 48 | 3.3% | 4 | 29 | -25 | 23 |
| PlaidC 💮 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2 |
| Other ⬜️ | 1.1% | 0 | 2.2% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| N.Ire ⬜️ | - | 18 | - | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
Scotland EC Break-Down
| Con | Lab | Lib | REF | Green | SNP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12% | 34% | 9% | 2% | 9% | 34% |
PrincipleFish
That would be a brutal election result. I'd hope it'd inspire Starmer to be more radical but it is more likely to entrench him on the right of the party and suppress any kind of dissent.
I think whats worse is, looking at and putting in the regional info from their data table, other than the Wales Green party numbers...this one actually feels right, loads of other polls the Scotland numbers have been all over the place, low numbers of people and odd % turning up, but this one doesn't have anything glaring out at me that's horrifically and clearly sampling error, even Flavible's more uniform and conservative model is absolutely brutal at these numbers, and these numbers are what, 1-2% up or down from the average over the last week or so.
This is BEFORE we have an election campaign and Purdah, we know Rishi isn't the greatest campaigner and he clearly doesn't like questions, PMQs or being questioned and that all thats going to happen to him for WEEKS during the election.
Dare we start to hope?
Dare we start to hope?
I don't think we need to hope. Unless footage emerges of Starmer biting the heads off babies, he'll win. And he's not that interesting. A house brick could get the win at this point.
I think the key will be the size of the majority and it look like it might be massive, which is a pity as there will be no need to compromise with anyone inside or outside his party and his possession as leader will be unassailable (Andy Burnham won't take another run at the top spot unless it's pretty much in the bag).
So I will likely celebrate the Tory loss on the night but then the reality will disappoint me. A bit like 1997 but faster.
Lol can you imagine Rishi trying to connect with the average person on TV getting ssked questions.
There's no way they put him in a room with anyone.