The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication
The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication
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Is there "no evidence" that using a parachute helps prevent injuries when jumping out of planes? This was the conclusion of a cute paper in the BMJ, which pointed out that as far as they could tell, nobody had ever done a study proving parachutes helped. Their point was that "evidence" isn't the same thing as "peer-reviewed journal articles". So maybe we should stop demanding journal articles, and accept informal evidence as valid?
Is there "no evidence" for alien abductions? There are hundreds of people who say they've been abducted by aliens! By legal standards, hundreds of eyewitnesses is great evidence! If a hundred people say that Bob stabbed them, Bob is a serial stabber - or, even if you thought all hundred witnesses were lying, you certainly wouldn't say the prosecution had “no evidence”! When we say "no evidence" here, we mean "no really strong evidence from scientists, worthy of a peer-reviewed journal article". But this is the opposite problem as with the parachutes - here we should stop accepting informal evidence, and demand more scientific rigor.
But how do you make the case that these are different and warrant different treatment to John Q. Public? Because you're basically saying that the anecdotes of regular people are of less value than the hunches of scientists. Do scientists have some epistemic privilege?
Obviously, they do. But John Q. Public is going to find that insulting and bad faith actors like all of Fox News is going to characterize scientists as liberal, technological elites that claim to know better than good ol' hard workin' Americans. That it is true is inconsequential.
OP link seems to be a personal blog.
As soon as I saw the 90s website and conspiracy level picture I closed the link without reading.
He's a pretty well regarded blogger, and a qualified psychiatrist, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slate_Star_Codex
And he's so proud of it that it was shut down when journalists "doxxed him" by saying what his real name was?
I googled him tho, and he's not a researcher or has ever done anything notable than that long rambling blog, he was so proud of he shut it down when he found it would be associated with him.
Probably because of all the alt right bullshit and anti science shit he's posted.
“It is the one place I know of online where you can have civil conversations among people with a wide range of views,” said David Friedman, an economist and legal scholar who was a regular part of the discussion. Fellow commenters on the site, he noted, represented a wide cross-section of viewpoints. “They range politically from communist to anarcho-capitalist, religiously from Catholic to atheist, and professionally from a literal rocket scientist to a literal plumber — both of whom are interesting people.”
The voices also included white supremacists and neo-fascists. The only people who struggled to be heard, Dr. Friedman said, were “social justice warriors.” They were considered a threat to one of the core beliefs driving the discussion: free speech.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/13/technology/slate-star-codex-rationalists.html
He told alt right tech bros what they wanted to hear, and you think that qualifies him to speak for the scientific community?
He's Joe Rogaine if he was smart enough to get a degree, but still dumb enough to rant about other shit he has no clue about
Fucking Ben Carlson is a pretty good comparison to this guy
By legal standards, hundreds of eyewitnesses is great evidence!
Actually no. Eyewitness is always one of the worst kinds of evidence, and quantity makes little difference. It remains very easy to argue that Bob just very closely resembles the killer. If we have actually good evidence of him being elsewhere that day, say he went to work and worked all day, maybe was on camera, clocked in and got paid, etc, then that would pretty soundly crush your hundreds of eyewitnesses.
Is there "no evidence" that using a parachute helps prevent injuries when jumping out of planes? This was the conclusion of a cute paper in the BMJ, which pointed out that as far as they could tell, nobody had ever done a study proving parachutes helped. Their point was that "evidence" isn't the same thing as "peer-reviewed journal articles". So maybe we should stop demanding journal articles, and accept informal evidence as valid?
Well...