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You’re right, except I don’t see businesses moving from RHEL to Debian. Businesses are trying to buy support contracts, which Debian doesn’t have. But RedHat is trying to get vendor lock-in so businesses can’t switch to another RHEL compatible platform, even if support is offered. And for sure, RedHat “support” will be pushing solutions that only work on RHEL, not generic Linux.
Perhaps this is SUSE's time to shine 😄? I believe SUSE Enterprise Linux has a product that allows for binary compatibility with RHEL and CentOS on SLE.
Everyone will likely have harder time maintaining compatibility without access to RHEL source. Giving customers access to the source under NDA is only slightly better than closed source. Hell, even Microsoft allows some customers to view the source.
I know SUSE Enterprise Linux is popular in the EU, but I've quite frankly had enough of corporate sponsored distributions. A few bad quarters and things could get interesting for the community oriented distributions.
I've moved back to Debian (with Flatpak) and will use the testing kernel for hardware reasons as soon as I remember where I put my notes on it or get tired and look it up.
He's talking about smallish companies which ran centos/alma/rocky.