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I'm gonna say yes, for the exercise.
Four assumptions:
- Reddit will keep getting worse, due to the nature of enshittification and venture capital. Eventually enshittification reaches a breaking point where people leave or stop arriving.
- Lemmy (in a broad sense - et al!) will keep getting better, due to.the nature of open source software.
- Non-free alternatives to Reddit will eventually enshittify, law of enshittification.
- Free alternatives will use ActivityPub for the obvious advantages.
If these assumptions are met, given infinite rounds of enshittification and unhappy users, eventually a federated and free alternative will be the most lucrative option for the majority of users. Eventually Reddit will Digg itself a hole. Maybe Lemmy won't take over then, but it'll stick around.
The most unrealistic assumption is of course that the federated solutions will keep getting better indefinitely. Maybe they won't. But as long as people keep developing and contributing to the Fediverse, it's alive and improving in a way commercial alternatives cannot in the long run compete with.
If the API fiasco hasn't really deterred enough Reddit users to convert, then almost nothing will. Except maybe when Spez gets around to monetizing NSFW subreddits and subreddits in general that are very large. But even then, I still say it won't be a giant deal. They'll come here but they'll want the Fediverse to strongly appeal to NSFW content and really the Fediverse is fine without it poisoning itself with that filth.
Wait until they kill old.reddit
Can't say I agree with NSFW content being "filth", but I would agree that generally it's harder for NSFW content to find a home over here due to the increased moderation costs it brings.
We don't need the coomers here. We just don't.
I also would not think of it as filth, but I also love its absence in Lemmy. Because that stuff acts like an STD and spreads and grows, and I’d rather just leave it out.
Does it currently make a profit? If not they will find ways to make it worse. And even if they do make a profit chances are they'll want to increase their margins.
Maybe stuff like the Google deal could keep money pouring in while keeping usability at a respectable level though.