But some investors argue that the big tech companies’ generative AI models will not necessarily capture most value because they are becoming increasingly commoditised and may be outcompeted by smaller open-source models. More money may be made by companies that have proprietary data in a particular industry and can leverage generative AI models to address specific use cases. “That is our investment strategy,” says Hemant Taneja, chief executive of the VC firm General Catalyst.
But VCs are also anxiously reviewing the valuations of their existing investment portfolios, given the disruptive impact it will have on all software businesses. Over the past few weeks, three start-up founders have told me they have had to junk their original business plans because of the launch this year of OpenAI’s more powerful GPT-4 model, rendering their use of earlier versions obsolete. Such is the speed of the technology’s evolution that start-ups and VCs are wary of betting too much on any one generative AI model for fear it will soon seem archaic.
The good old days when VCs could thrive by adopting a “spray and pray” investment strategy and counting on a surging market to lift all valuations are over — even when it comes to AI. Investors are going to have to make smart, discrete bets in a time of technological turmoil and in a highly unpredictable world. But that, after all, is their job.
None of that is very flattering. Sounds like the entire investment / venture capital industry itself should be replaced entirely by AI.