Of course they aren't going back. We saw how arrogant spez was. There was no doubt in my mind he is just going to rely on the fact that most people are rarely committed enough to do anything.
My expectation... Some will stay with the fediverse. Others will see the blackout as a "we did everything we could" and then go back, business as usual.
I for sure will not be back. I like RIF and it is the only way I browse. With RIF gone so too am I.
I feel so bad for Christian. He's been an absolute role model in handling this—calm demeanor, transparent communication and willingness to compromise (which Reddit obviously doesn't have).
He's put so much work into Apollo and stayed composed so far during the shutdown process. What scares me for him is the risk of refunds now: whoever subscribed to a premium tier can have the purchase refunded since he won't be able to provide the service. I hope not too many will go the refund route.
A lot of people claim that they bought the premium tier even after the announcement in API changes to support him, despite 3P apps shutting down in 3 weeks. I feel like most users will be supportive and not refund, myself included (Sync pro)
I think you're probably right. I might even go back because /r/stopdrinking is sort of a lifeline for me, and I just don't see another viable alternative.
But I'm hoping to replace the majority of my reddit use with the fediverse.
I relate to this, I am in a number of support groups on Reddit. I ended up just making the knitting community here because I didn't know what I was doing and now I'm a mod. I really want to set up a c/stopdrinking community here but that's a mod role I am not willing to take on.
I think there is a huge difference from going to a specific sub that doesn't have equivalents and just browsing aimlessly. The aimlessly browsing is where they get the real juicy user data on what people engage with.