My guess is that they will elect a conservative pope to replace Francis. It is no secret that there are court intrigues and in-fighting in the Vatican between progressive and conservative clergies. Pope Francis openly went toe to toe with many ultraconservative, MAGA clergies in America, de-frocking one of the priests.
Vatican itself does not have much influence on this election. Francis was smart enough to appoints lots of bishops from "remote" regions like for example Mongolia or Pakistan, who have not been able to form political networks with each other and make it far more difficult for court intrigues to work out. Yes , the conclave surely will see those again, but there should be a counter weight at play here