The whole point of the Sword of Damocles was that the threat was always looming and Damocles didn't know when it might fall. We know exactly when Microsoft says they are going to drop support. There's a decent chance that they'll push that date back due to slow adoption at least once.
This is more about rats not fleeing the sinking ship until the sea has reached the bow.
Well, the real moment it becomes an issue is when a significant vulnerability is found after EOS. So I guess after EOS is when the sword of damocles starts hanging above every win 10 user..
Personally I'm on the edge of the ship just waiting to jump off once i have my new pc (probably next week).
I know people still running XP sp3 (firewalled off the net) and it still does the job. They claimed to have killed 7 but between FOSS and enshittification pushback I reckon it's gonna be like the PS2