With a budget of $120 million, Francis Ford Coppola's "Megalopolis" grossed only $4 million on its opening weekend, making it one of the worst box office openings for a $100M+ movie to date.
Factoring in marketing costs and the theaters taking their cut of the profits, Megalopolis would need to make at least $300 million to break even. I think it's safe to say that's not happening.
It would have been THE worst opening for a $100 million movie ever, had it not been for Pluto Nash's horriffic opening 22 years ago.
Maybe I'm getting whooshed here, but while Shawshank Redemption had some bad luck at the Oscars, it was nominated for seven of them, including best picture, best actor, and best adapted screenplay. People might not have predicted its staying power, but it was pretty much universally praised.