Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast
Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast
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His older model at538 has things tighter with the coin toss slightly weighted toward Harris.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-harris-2024-election-map/
Whether it’s 55/45 or 65/35, we’re still basically talking about the same thing. This race is neck and neck, and whoever gets the turnout edge will win. We’re talking about fractions of percents that are at play, which is why these odd are a coin toss.
Edit: it looks like 538’s model is new, and Silver doesn’t like it or the guy behind it.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election
Different model, same website. Silver got to keep his model and took it elsewhere after departing from 538.
TIL. I thought they forked it. I didn’t realize 538’s was all new.
Wait, he's not 538 now?
Nope. I don't know exactly what happened there, but after ABC bought it, Nate was gradually phased out. He found alternative funding.