Houston, we have problem

coastal.climatecentral.org

Sea level rise and coastal flood risk maps -- a global screening tool by Climate Central

Linked, an interactive world map that shows different coastal flooding scenarios, over time. Six years from now, parts of Texas will be migrating inland.

12 comments

Hopefully texas’ neighbors are super considerate and companionate toward immigrants fleeing destruction
Oh
Wait
No, we will have a problem. That is a crucial difference.
- I'd argue we have a problem now, what we will have is consequences.
This reminds me of the darkly humorous "Bay of Los Angeles" map...
https://conspiracyofcartographers.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/LosAngeles_Watermarked-1.png
I was looking at houses a while back (in CA), and there were a couple in the $400k range, while everything else was at least double. They were closest to the San Pablo Bay and in the first level of inundation on this map.
I have a couple of friends who bought close to sea level in the area. One got out, and the other is dealing with underground corrosion due to groundwater salinity. If he doesn't get out, I expect him to get stuck upside-down on his mortgage.
Then there's insurance. I've noticed that, in many situations, they're becoming the driving force for relocation, ahead of individual self interest. You can't borrow money for a house without insurance, and they're 100% in control of when they choose to pull out. They don't get stuck with the property in the end.
What will happen to these communities is insurance prices will skyrocket, or become unavailable. The government will step in and insure the houses, but not for new buyers. The banks get their money back, but the homeowners will have unsaleable property, or nothing at the end of 30 years.
What hasn't happened yet is for the market to adjust in areas that don't see inundation until 2060. Those are some of the scariest situations, because all it'll take is rumor, and suddenly whole neighborhoods will be stuck losing value.
- It's not even just coastal areas and flood insurance. Where I live many people are having trouble getting fire insurance in rural areas due to increased risk of forest fires from the warmer weather and longer periods of drought.
  Can't renew mortgages without fire insurance, can't sell properties if there are no buyers who can get it insured.
  
  My dad's dealing with that one. First it was 50, now 100 feet of clearance required. Thankfully, state and local grants helped him out. Still, it cost a few thousand in labor.
- Edit: playing with this map, I noticed that there isn't a current conditions setting. I suspect much of the red that we see in 2030 is currently, technically underwater. It's just protected in some way.
  Moving from 2030 to 2130 shows continued land-mass recession, but in no way does it continue the trend we would see if current conditions were no flooding and 2030 had SFO and Foster City underwater.
I like this one:
https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/0/-11581024.663779823/5095888.569004184/4/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion
- Holee molee! Site can stutter on mobile, but that’s some serious coastal loss. 🥺
Quick! Show me ZERO like it is now.
Um, no, we're not under water now...

12 comments