Aotearoa Daily Kōrero 13/12/2023
Welcome to today’s daily kōrero!
Anyone can make the thread, first in first served. If you are here on a day and there’s no daily thread, feel free to create it!
Anyway, it’s just a chance to talk about your day, what you have planned, what you have done, etc.
So, how’s it going?
Can I just say with all the wild weather that was supposed to be coming to Hawkes Bay last night I chose to not water the grass seed i'd planted on Sunday as it was going to pish down. Then we barely got a few showers, so all in all i'm a bit disappointed in the weather event.
Thought for the day.
Lets run a thought experiment.
How should the world react to a new virus. Lets make this one a nightmare scenario, in the beginning we assume it is like a new COVID, but it quickly becomes apparent that the death rate rather than being in below 1%, is in the high teens 16-18%.
The virus is given a small chance to spread before global lockdowns are imposed and a few 10's of thousands die. After a bit of number crunching, we find that a specific group is far more susceptible to catching and spreading but are almost unaffected by it; conversely for everyone else the opposite is true; they are ineffective spreaders but are sickened by it easily.
Lets assume the spreaders are a significant group, the left handed only because they are everywhere in all walks of life and every country.
How do we handle this situation?
Note: according to this the best estimate of global left handedness is 10.6%
I think the case of another COVID is just as interesting. After years of lockdowns, health measures, and protests, I think if another COVID came up then probably we (as a planet) will just let people die. I think we (as a country) would just recommend masks and otherwise change nothing, and even if we had a different government I don't think we would do lockdowns again - I don't think people would accept it as easily as the first time, we saw this in the later lockdowns with people just being over it.
For your scenario, I would wonder how long it would take us to work out it's left-handed people. If the majority are spreaders but unaffected, looking at the way COVID spread around the world in a short amount of time, I think what would happen is 16-18% of all left-handed people would die and hopefully they can't catch the virus twice because if they can then I think the end result is no left-handed people.
COVID is hugely contagious, and if the people spreading don't know they are sick then it's probably not practical to do anything to stop it. I think most people would have the virus before RAT tests are developed and enough are manufactured, and PCR tests on a daily basis for the entire population (because most people have no symptoms) would not be feasible.
To sum up, I think the outcome is that left handed people would be screwed.
I think what would happen is 16-18% of all left-handed people would die and hopefully they can’t catch the virus twice because if they can then I think the end result is no left-handed people.
In the scenario the LH people are almost unaffected, it is the rest of the population that has the high death rate. If we assume LH death rate is in the 1 in 100,000 range (0.001%) and RH death rate is 16-18%.
I think what would happen is lockdowns; initially and then internment camps for LH people. Because RH people don't spread it easily; without the LH people spreading the virus, it would die out in the rest of the population.
I am crushing it today, I just completed a 6 page form plus assembled all the required supporting documents! Wish me luck!