The "Just One More" Paradox – Kelly Criterion [video]

I’m happy to say that when the video asked the question, “would you take this bet?” before doing any of the math, my intuition instantly said “hell no!” simply on the basis that going heads after tails does not restore you to you previous position, which implies to me that on average you’d keep going downwards. And I was right! …for the correct type of average, the mode. Which is really what I’d be most concerned about anyway.

The strategy at the end is pretty fascinating though. I get that it works, but I don’t have a full grasp of why it works yet. Not in the same level of gut intuition that told me the initial deal was a bad one at any rate.

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I’m happy to say that when the video asked the question, “would you take this bet?” before doing any of the math, my intuition instantly said “hell no!” simply on the basis that going heads after tails does not restore you to you previous position, which implies to me that on average you’d keep going downwards. And I was right! …for the correct type of average, the mode. Which is really what I’d be most concerned about anyway.
The strategy at the end is pretty fascinating though. I get that it works, but I don’t have a full grasp of why it works yet. Not in the same level of gut intuition that told me the initial deal was a bad one at any rate.