Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence
digitaleconomy.stanford.edu
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence
Juniors are getting clobbered.
I'd like to extend that graph a couple of years to the left. The analyses I've seen clearly demonstrate that this is a regression to mean after a post-Covid hiring spike. By looking at such a narrow window over such a fraught time, it looks like it could be saying anything here.
Are these workers? This is showing a real problem. Job openings? Not nearly as concerning. Without showing this in historical context, this is really dubious journalism.
This study controls for the post-COVID hiring spike in three ways: the researchers generated results without including the tech sector, they separated out remote work, and compared trends from 2018-2022 to those after. The hypothesis holds in all cases. The primary regression analysis also included a standard set of controls for hiring trends (such as interest rate fluctuation).
There's enough here to find a negative correlation between generative AI and entry-level employment.
This video is talking about a slightly different chart, but it's the same timeline for job openings disappearing. It's very accessible. And it has a very different conclusion.