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Satellites detected early hints of 'catastrophic' wildfire season in Manitoba, researchers say | CBC News

www.cbc.ca /news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-wildfire-season-satellite-artificial-intelligence-1.7605986

There were multiple overlapping signs on the Prairies detectable from space that provided an early hint of the devastating wildfire season Manitoba's still fighting through, researchers say.

An analysis of satellite imagery by University of Ottawa and Université Laval researchers suggests moderately low rainfall in April, a moderately early spring snow melt, moderately dry soil, moderately parched vegetation and a moderate decline in overall "greenness" of vegetation had a compounding effect that helped transform Manitoba into a "highly flammable landscape."

(Hossein Bonakdari, associate professor in the department of civil engineering at the University of Ottawa) and his co-authors say their findings support more widespread use of satellite imagery for wildfire forecasting and emergency preparedness planning as wildfire seasons grow longer and more intense due to climate change.

Their work was published this month in the journal Earth.

2 comments

  • Bless you, OP, for linking the original paper in the post body. Lemmy Rocks 😎

    [Bold mine]

    Conclusions: The May 2025 wildfires in Manitoba resulted from multiple interacting environmental stressors, including reduced April precipitation, early snowmelt, soil moisture deficits, vegetation stress, and declining greenness, all of which contributed to a highly flammable landscape. While each anomaly alone appeared moderate, the observed spatial and temporal overlap of moderate anomalies suggests a potential synergistic effect that significantly preconditioned the environment for ignition. This effect was particularly pronounced in forest–agriculture transition zones, where fire susceptibility is often underestimated in early spring. By quantifying these relationships using multi-source satellite and reanalysis datasets, this study provides new empirical support for the role of compound biosphere–climate anomalies as early warning signals. These findings underscore the crucial need to incorporate satellite-derived environmental indicators into operational fire risk assessments, enabling better anticipation and management of spring wildfire outbreaks in boreal ecosystems. This is particularly important in a changing climate, where such compound conditions are expected to become more frequent, subtle, and hazardous.

    Let's say these satellite-derived early warning signals provide a month's notice of a "highly flammable landscape." How can forest fire preventing and fighting resources be effectively scaled up in that time?

    The first thing I think of is labour (i.e., people). Maybe increased surveillance (to detect fires earlier) and just-in-case Canadian Armed Forces deployment as ancillary responders? Maybe prepare to scale up equipment too. My brother used to be a forest firefighter, and he said that they used a lot of rented/leased equipment. Is there any reasonable and feasible way to directly make the landscape less flammable?

    • Is there any reasonable and feasible way to directly make the landscape less flammable?

      Yes, there is. Fire breaks can be created ahead of time in the most at-risk areas. And this is work that crews can do who will later be on strike teams, whereas if they have to do it while they’re already deployed… fewer feet on the ground.