Lithuanian interior minister urges EU to adopt migrant forced return policy

This is an important and complex issue. It's not just about migration, not even about illegal migration, but about hybrid mechanism of pressure by Russia and Belarus against Europe, and primarily against their immediate neighours like Lithuania by efforts to place intelligence agents in other countries, and the possibility of provocations against the Belarusian and Russia diaspora.

As the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council writes in a recent analysis:

Russia and Belarus possess a wide range of hybrid and military instruments of influence over regional security, which can be used to exert pressure on NATO’s eastern flank. These include both tools that are employed almost continuously, as well as those that require a higher level of preparation and planning. The first group includes the following:

Illegal migration: Migrants regularly try to break through the Lithuanian and Polish borders, even after the active phase of the migration crisis has ended. For example, in 2023, approximately 24,000 attempts to breach the Belarus-Poland border were recorded, and in 2024 that number rose to 36,000. While the intensity is somewhat lower than in 2021, when nearly 40,000 migrants tried to enter Poland during the autumn and winter months, it is still sufficient to create daily problems for Belarus’s western neighbours.

Infiltration of agent networks and organization of provocations: In parallel, Belarusian and Russian intelligence services are continuously recruiting and infiltrating their agents into neighbouring countries. A striking example is Lithuania, especially after Lithuanian intelligence reported that a well-known Belarusian activist, Olga Karach, had cooperated with Russian security forces. Because of security concerns additional migration restrictions for Belarusians have been introduced. Moreover, provocations targeting the Belarusian diaspora are taking place within the country, likely organized by Belarus’s intelligence services, with the aim of destabilizing Lithuanian society.

1 comments

This is an important and complex issue. It's not just about migration, not even about illegal migration, but about hybrid mechanism of pressure by Russia and Belarus against Europe, and primarily against their immediate neighours like Lithuania by efforts to place intelligence agents in other countries, and the possibility of provocations against the Belarusian and Russia diaspora.
As the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council writes in a recent analysis:
Russia and Belarus possess a wide range of hybrid and military instruments of influence over regional security, which can be used to exert pressure on NATO’s eastern flank. These include both tools that are employed almost continuously, as well as those that require a higher level of preparation and planning. The first group includes the following:
Illegal migration: Migrants regularly try to break through the Lithuanian and Polish borders, even after the active phase of the migration crisis has ended. For example, in 2023, approximately 24,000 attempts to breach the Belarus-Poland border were recorded, and in 2024 that number rose to 36,000. While the intensity is somewhat lower than in 2021, when nearly 40,000 migrants tried to enter Poland during the autumn and winter months, it is still sufficient to create daily problems for Belarus’s western neighbours.
Infiltration of agent networks and organization of provocations: In parallel, Belarusian and Russian intelligence services are continuously recruiting and infiltrating their agents into neighbouring countries. A striking example is Lithuania, especially after Lithuanian intelligence reported that a well-known Belarusian activist, Olga Karach, had cooperated with Russian security forces. Because of security concerns additional migration restrictions for Belarusians have been introduced. Moreover, provocations targeting the Belarusian diaspora are taking place within the country, likely organized by Belarus’s intelligence services, with the aim of destabilizing Lithuanian society.