• Almost three months into Ukraine's counteroffensive, multiple reports have confirmed that Ukrainian forces have now broken through the first line of Russian defenses in the Zaporizhzhia region. Business Insider (LR: 3 CP: 4)
• Speaking to Jordanian media late last week, US Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Ukrainian progress has been "bloody, long, and slow." However, he added that: "Specifically on the axis of advance that they're attacking on right now, they've attacked through the first main defensive belt." Business Insider (LR: 3 CP: 4)
• These Ukrainian gains have largely centered around the Zaporizhzhia village of Robotyne. Though Ukrainian forces claimed to have liberated Robotyne last week, parts of its territory — which remained under Russian artillery fire — were still disputed. Kyivpost (a)
• On Monday, Ukraine's deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said that the village was completely liberated and added that the country's forces were advancing further south towards Novodanylivka, Novoprokopivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Ocheretuvate. "These are the fronts where our forces are currently advancing, despite the enemy's fierce resistance," she said. Ukrainska Pravda
• Meanwhile, a Ukrainian commander who'd been fighting in Robotyne told Reuters that they'd broken through what they believed was the most difficult of Russian defensive lines, and that progress will be much quicker going forward. He added that his unit's goal was to reach the Sea of Azov. Kyivpost (b)
• However, according to reports, Russia has been redeploying some of its most elite fighting units to the Zaporizhzhia front in the past week — including forces from the 76th Guard Air Assault Division — bringing into question whether Ukrainian advances can continue at the same speed. The Telegraph

Narrative A:

• Now that Ukraine has broken through the first line of Russian defenses — the most heavily mined and protected — its progress going forward will be much swifter. Ukrainian forces will keep pushing Russia out of its territory and carry on advancing towards the Sea of Azov.
  Kyivpost

Narrative B:

• Ukraine has made modest gains, but they have come at the expense of significant losses and equipment. Ukraine is unlikely to drive Russia out of all its territory, and if Kyiv overextends itself in aim of this goal, it may leave itself exposed to a new Russian offensive sweeping through its territory.
  Time (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)