• On Wednesday, Iranian authorities reportedly arrested at least 12 female activists associated with the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising in the northern Gilan province as the country braces for demonstrations on the first anniversary of the mass protests that shook the nation. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• State-run Tasnim news agency on Thursday reported that the detainees were accused of conspiring to incite chaos and vandalism on Sept. 16 to commemorate the anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini. Iranwire
• Activist Shiva Nazarahari says the detained women’s whereabouts and the specific charges they face remain unknown, while their families have had no contact with them. Iran’s Intelligence Ministry claims two of the women received money and training from Western security forces. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This comes as activists have reportedly been detained and sentenced on a daily basis over the past few weeks, with authorities mainly targeting the Kurdish minority in northwestern Iran, where Amini was from and where protests began. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In April, Iran Human Rights claimed that at least 22K people had been arrested since protests broke out — a figure later corroborated by the official IRNA news agency — and that at least 537 had died. ABC News
• The nationwide unrest following the death of Amini while in police custody for allegedly wearing her mandatory hijab too loosely marked the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic since 2009. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Anti-Iran narrative:

• Iran continues to arrest human rights defenders for simply protesting the government’s abusive policies toward women. Last year’s protests served as a wake-up call to Iran and the rest of the world, and millions of women are now voicing their opposition to Iran’s draconian and sexist policies. Iranian officials may seek to use force to stomp out dissent and prevent people from demanding their rights, but the international community must come together to stop this abuse.
  Front Line Defenders

Pro-Iran narrative:

• While Western media promotes propaganda about the violent riots of 2022, Iranian officials look to keep the country safe from deceitful agents seeking to promote anti-security riots. The 12-member team detained in Gilan has worked with adversaries of Iran to push their political agenda and undermine the safety of the nation. This cannot be tolerated, and any organized actions against Iran will be met with swift punishment.
  PressTV

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by September 30, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)