• Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates from 8.5% to 12% in an emergency move aimed at stemming rising inflation and strengthening the ruble, which on Monday slid to its lowest point since the early weeks of the Ukraine war. Associated Press
• After Russia launched its invasion in Feb. 2022, a raft of sanctions caused its currency to plummet to as low as 136 rubles to the dollar. But by June, as oil and gas prices surged, it rocketed to 50 rubles to the dollar, making it one of the best-performing currencies in the world. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• However by January of this year, as European countries weaned themselves off Russian oil and gas — a major source of income for the Kremlin — the ruble slid to roughly 66 to the dollar. It has since continued to slump and on Monday it slid past 101 rubles to the dollar — wiping off more than a quarter of its value since the beginning of the year. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• After Tuesday's central bank announcement, the tide subsided and the currency returned to roughly 98 rubles to the dollar. In a statement, it blamed the recent decline in value on Russian demand exceeding the country's ability to boost its economic output, thus causing inflation rates to rise, as well as increasing Russia's reliance on foreign imports. Associated Press
• Maxim Oreshkin, an economic advisor to Russian Pres. Putin, suggested a different diagnosis in an opinion piece for the Russian news outlet TASS. He suggested that "soft monetary policy" in the form of accelerating corporate and consumer lending was responsible for the weakened ruble. TASS
• Western analysts meanwhile suggested that it was a demonstration that sanctions placed on Russia were working, as well as a consequence of Russia's increased defense spending, which reportedly doubled in 2023 from the year before. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• The weakened ruble has been caused by monetary policy that's allowed Russian borrowing to go up and up, thus increasing the money supply and driving up inflation. Nonetheless, Russia's central bank has all the necessary tools at its disposal to tackle this problem and the trend will soon be reversed.
  TASS

Anti-Russia narrative:

• The slump in Russia's currency is a consequence of the Western sanctions that have squeezed Russia's economy, largely in the form of decreased income from exports of Russian oil and gas. The Kremlin is also spending more and more on its war effort, therefore its public finances are taking a toll.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 78% chance that Russia's GDP (in 2015 USD) will be at least $1.50 trillion in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)