I don't like the clickbait title at all -- Mastodon's clearly going to survive, at least for the forseeable future, and it wouldn't surprise me if it outlives Xitter.
Still, Mastodon is struggling; most of the people who checkd it out in the November 2022 surge (or the smaller June 2023 surge) didn't stick around, and numbers have been steadily declining for the last year. The author makes some good points, and some of the comments are excellent.
Mastodon is pretty different to its competitors. It looks similar to Twitter / Bluesky, but the way the social network functions is completely different.
It's designed to be anti-infuencer... One of the things I hate about most social media platforms is a few people get all the attention. There are a few reasons for this, but it's not really based on merit.
I think a lot of people joined Mastodon wanting a Twitter clone. It's obviously not and Bluesky is, so people moved there. The approach Mastodon takes is far from perfect, and may not work out in the long run. But it seems like it's worth at least trying something different.
When my own feed, free of the algorithm, did not have content of interest. Because I or others took turns shouting into the void. Then I would go on the explore /front page where there was definitely an algorithm of influencers, many who had follower counts of thousands, talking about the same stuff. Many seemed to be upper middle class Americans .
I soon hated them, but many were broadcast to other instances’ front page too. Between them and lack of interaction from people I wanted to hear from, I left