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Ohio Voters Reject Change to State Constitution

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Ohio Voters Reject Change to State Constitution

  • In a win for abortion rights groups ahead of a referendum this fall, Ohioans on Tuesday rejected a Republican-backed ballot measure, known as Issue 1, that would raise the threshold needed to amend the state's constitution from a simple majority to 60%. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
  • With nearly all ballots counted, unofficial results showed that roughly 57% of the voters, more than 1.7M people, voted to defeat the proposal while nearly 43%, more than 1.3M people, were in favor. The Columbus Dispatch
  • This highly charged vote was heavily fueled by out-of-state donors who trumpeted the influence of special interests on Ohio politics. The full cost of the election won't be known until September. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
  • Abortion wasn't directly on the off-year summer election, but Republicans in the conservative-leaning state had pushed Issue 1 to try and undermine a public initiative to enshrine abortion rights into Ohio's constitution. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
  • If approved in November, this proposed amendment would give women legal control over reproduction decisions, upending Ohio's six-week abortion ban that took effect last year following SCOTUS' decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

  • While this victory far from indicates the GOP will lose its grip on power in Ohio, it does reveal that abortion remains a key issue for voters ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Abortion-rights ballot measures have been undefeated even in red states since Roe v. Wade fell, a streak that suggests Republican-controlled state legislatures can be circumvented by direct democracy.
    Atlantic (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Republican narrative:

  • This vote doesn't show the success of direct democracy, but rather how outside progressive groups can undermine the people's voice by funneling millions in dark money to attack state constitutions and advance their radical agenda. Given that sitting on the sidelines is a strategy doomed to fail, pro-life supporters must stand united and firm to protect the unborn.
    Breitbart (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

  • There's a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
    Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)
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